It should have come as no surprise, but it did. Investors were poised for a slightly less hawkish Jerome Powell but were once again disappointed by the Federal Reserve Bank chairman.

 

Chairman Powell and his Federal Open Market Committee's decision to maintain a course of rising interest rates for longer punctured this most recent bear market rally. The three major indexes dropped more than 2 percent and continued to fall for the remainder of the week.

 

There was nothing new in the FOMC statement, nor in Powell's remarks afterward in the Q&A session. To some observers, he seemed even more hawkish than usual. Sure, he conceded that at some point, the Fed might pause in their tightening but not yet, and a pause would not mean a pivot toward a more dovish stance anyway.

 

How many times will the Fed have to reiterate its stance before the markets get it? If there is money to be made in promising hope without reason, traders will continue to suck investors into these bear market rallies. However, there may be other more interesting areas that an investor might want to consider.

 

For example, those who have been hiding in cash, or those who may be losing their shirts invested in equities, may want to consider purchasing some U.S. Treasuries. One-through-five-year notes are yielding between 4.87 percent and 4.44 percent. Granted, that is only giving you about half the present inflation rate, but even the Fed is expecting the inflation rate will come down over the next 12 months. In the meantime, you are at least earning something, instead of losing more money in the stock market.

 

Another suggestion might be to consider Series I Bonds, which are U.S. savings bonds that protect you from inflation. You earn both a fixed rate of interest and a rate that changes with inflation. Twice a year, however, the government resets the inflation rate for the next six months. Nov. 1, 2022, for example, was the last day you could have purchased an I Bond that was giving you more than 9 percent. That rate has since dropped to 6.89 percent for the next six months and will likely see a comparable drop six months hence. You must keep I Bonds for one year after purchase.  

 

Now that doesn't mean you should go out and sell everything and pile the money into U.S. Treasuries. But investing some money in short-term debt might be a smart investment. I would at least ask your investment advisor about the possibility if you haven't done so already.

 

So, is this latest rally over? Not necessarily, but if the markets are going to continue to move up, at least for another week or two, it will have to be on something other than Fed policy. About the only bullish event in the U.S. that I could see that would trigger another rebound would be the results of next week's mid-term elections. 

 

As of today, Republicans are expected to take back the U.S. House, and maybe the Senate. If so, a two-year period of paralysis will likely descend again on our government. Historically, financial markets have liked that kind of political standstill. No new major legislation would likely be passed. That means taxes will not rise, nor would spending increase, except on the margin. Predictability is the grease that oils the wheel of market gains, all things being equal.

 

Rumors that China may be considering lifting its Zero-Covid policy propelled the markets higher on Friday. If this rumor, which is based on a news story from Bloomberg News, turns out to be true, that could give a major growth boost to world economies. China’s economy has been disrupted by their frequent openings and closings of cities, factories, ports, etc. based on virus outbreaks. A change in policy could boost demand, imports, exports and impact many companies worldwide. However, even if the rumor is true, a full reopening of the Chinese economy wouldn’t happen until March 2023.

 

Could that outcome trigger a rally in the markets for a couple of weeks? Probably, and we might be able to put together a bullish scenario that could see my target of 4,000-4,100 met on the S&P 500 Index achieved. I warned investors that this relief rally would be different and so far, it has been — lots of ups and downs. In the meantime, equities are still at the mercy of interest rates, the strong U.S. dollar, and geopolitical events.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Traders are hoping for good news from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Nov. 2. Stocks have been rallying in anticipation, but the Fed has disappointed before. Will they do it again?

 

The bulls figure it this way: The economy is expected to weaken, at least moderately. However, the third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in a bit better than expected rising 2.6 percent versus the 2.3 percent expected. So, there is no real proof that the bulls are right quite yet.

 

As for the slowing of inflation, there is little evidence of that as well. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is a measure of prices that Americans pay for goods and services and is closely watched by the Fed. The PCE for September did come as expected, 0.5 percent. The University of Michigan Inflation Expectation index also rose in October.

 

Bond yields continue to gyrate and are held captive by every macroeconomic data point that is released. The dollar seems to be topping, at least in the short term. However, topping may not mean down, but just a period of moving sideways.

 

Nonetheless, the above combination of macro fundamentals is supporting stocks. The strength of the market has been even more remarkable given the earnings results of Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Together these stocks comprise an enormous weighting in the overall market. Earnings results have been bad to terrible for these FANG stocks. Apple is the lone positive, beating analysts forecasted results. However, even Apple warned that the coming holiday season would not be great for the company.

 

 Weeks ago, I explained to readers that this rally would be led by energy stocks, materials, precious metals, financials, utilities, and health care. For the markets to continue to hold their own (or move up), will depend on the strength of those segments of the market. I also advised, "don't expect markets to move straight up. Each economic data point will provide an excuse for traders to move markets up or down, but overall, the trend should be your friend." That has been the nature of this bear market rally.

 

Most strategists had been warning that this third-quarter earnings season would be a make-or-break event for the markets. I have ignored buzz kill predictions like that. As you know, I am cynical about the Wall Street quarterly earnings game. The way it works is that analysts cut their forecasts drastically in front of earnings, which then enables companies to "beat" these forecasts. Usually, a "beat" will see a company's stock price stock move up several percent or so.

 

The facts are that earnings, sales, and corporate guidance have not been stellar, despite the supposed "beats." More and more corporate managers are predicting a recession. Some have even given up providing guidance claiming that the environment is so uncertain that they cannot predict sales and profits with any certainty.

 

However, that is not what is moving markets in my opinion. It is the decline in the U.S. dollar and the recent pullback in bond yields that has done the yeoman's work, along with what I'll call "hopeification" that the Fed will turn less hawkish.

 

In recent days, we have seen the dollar decline on the back of intervention. The Japanese, Chinese, and British treasuries have been selling dollars. At the same time, the fear of recession has put a halt to rising yields in the bond market, at least in the short term.

 

What has not been a factor in the markets thus far is the mid-term elections, which are right around the corner. In past years, there was much more discussion, positioning, and predictions on what would happen to the markets and the economy depending on which party came out on top. I assume that neither party will have a meaningful impact on resolving the problems of the economy over the next two years, despite campaign promises.

 

I still think we continue higher with the S&P 500 Index reaching the 4,000-4,100 level in the days ahead. Of course, all bets are off if the Fed turns even more hawkish next week but I'm betting they won't be.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

It was a week that looked promising. The three main U.S. averages spiked higher, gaining almost 4 percent in two days on no news. The remainder of the week saw profit-taking. Blame higher interest rates and a stronger dollar. 

 

The benchmark yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has topped 4 percent this week and hit 4.3 percent on Friday. The greenback climbed higher as a result. It is about one percent below its year-to-date high on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) of 114.78. As interest rates and the dollar continue to climb higher, stocks can still go up, but only to a point. We have reached that point this week.

 

The impetus for these rising rates is the bond market's belief that the Federal Reserve Bank will be unrelenting in its promise to raise interest longer and higher than the equity markets had hoped. Underlying this belief is the continued strength of the economy and the persistent strength in the inflation rate. Nothing in this statement is new. So why do both the bond and stock markets continue to ignore that fact?

 

I believe there is a hidden conflict among traders and investors that explains this divergence. It has its roots in the underlying, short-term behavior of equity and fixed income traders today versus the longer-term approach of the Fed.

 

This is understandable given the nature of the markets. Bond investors historically have thought in terms of months to years. That has changed somewhat as young, inexperienced, bond vigilantes attempt to push interest rates up and down rapidly. Many argue that the volatility in the bond market outstrips that of the stock market.

 

That is more difficult to accomplish given the depth of assets in the bond markets. In short, it takes a lot more money to move bonds around than it does stocks. However, applying leverage can amplify price movements.

 

In comparison, the Federal Reserve Bank thinks in terms of years. Inflation is high, and in their view, it will take anywhere from a year to three, or more, before they can manage to bring inflation down to their stated target of 2 percent. No matter how many ways they express those sentiments to market participants, investors, fail to believe them. Why?

 

Equity and bond players, I believe, have become increasingly short-term in their trading behavior. Generally, 70  percent of them (day and algo traders) are immersed in trading where the time horizon is in minutes, if not seconds. Long-term to them is, at best, a couple of weeks. Why is that significant?

 

The markets have been in a downtrend since December of last year. The decline has tried the patience of these new financial jockeys. They simply do not have the temperament to accept the longer-term perseverance that is required in these troubling economic times. They might be able to accept that the Fed will continue to raise Fed funds to some terminal rate of 4.5 percent or so, but then what?

 

The mistaken assumption is that the Fed will immediately start reducing interest rates again. What if interest rates simply remain at these higher levels for much longer? Most traders can't conceive of that happening. What if interest rates remain elevated for a year, maybe more? If so, we may face declining markets at worse, or sideways markets at best for longer than many might expect. 

 

For someone who began his financial career in 1979, I know how dreadful a sideways market can be. At the time, I think the S&P 500 Index gained a total of 26 points from 1979 to 1982.

 

From a technical point of view, we are still in a downtrend, and to see markets do what I want, we need to get above 3,800 on the S&P 500 Index by 20 points or so. I believe we will see that happen over the next week. However, we could easily see a hundred points or more down before that happens. 

 

How high could we go if I am right? A guess on the upside would be as high as 4,100-4,200, over a few weeks.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Oversold, stretched to the downside, too bearish, call it what you will, stocks bounced from another bottom this week. How long can this rally last?

 

It was the first time the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell at least 500 points and then rose 800 points in one trading day. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained 2.6 percent and 2.2 percent respectively. The huge turnaround was even more impressive when you consider that this week's inflation numbers, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) both came in hotter than expected.

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that in September the CPI rose 8.2 percent over the prior year and 0.4 percent over the prior month. Core CPI rose 0.6 percent, month over month. Investors were hoping that inflation was at least flat-lining, but that does not seem to be the case. September's PPI came in hotter than expected, indicating a 0.4 percent jump in headline PPI. These numbers bolster the Fed's case that equity investors should prepare and accept that interest rates will be higher interest for longer.

 

However, the disappointment and subsequent sell-off that one would have expected didn't quite happen in the way day traders expected. The PPI announcement on Wednesday caused a bit of a downturn, but nothing major. Before the CPI was reported at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday, Oct. 13, the S&P 500 Index was up over 1 percent. An hour and a half later, the disappointing data had driven the market down to a new yearly low of 3,491.

 

At their lows, the NASDAQ was down 3 percent, the Dow nearly 2 percent and the S&P 500 dropped more than 2 percent. By the end of the day, however, we closed at 3,669, which was an intraday swing of 175 points off the day's low! Financial commentators were at a loss to explain the massive move up on after hitting yet another yearly low this week.

 

The explanation is simple for those who understand the options markets. Options are contracts that give the bearer the right — but not the obligation — to either buy a call or sell a put an amount of some underlying asset (in this case, stocks) at a predetermined price at or before the contract expires.

 

There were a ton of put options in place that professional investors and market makers had purchased over the last few weeks. Puts make money when the markets go down. The purpose was to hedge (protect) their stock portfolios in the event of further bad news, which is a common practice in the financial markets. They were bracing for the worst to happen and got what they wished for.

 

The CPI inflation data triggered massive selling. Billions of dollars of put options were suddenly "in the money" and traders began to take profits. What happens when you sell all these puts? The selling pressure in the markets subsides, and the markets, like a beach ball underwater, pop to the surface. Of course, Friday, we retraced more than half the prior day's gains on both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Indexes. That is what happened this week.

 

Technical target levels around the 3,500 level on the S&P 500 Index had been reached. It was a downside target that I, and many others, have been predicting for weeks. Markets reversed from there. Were there massive amounts of fundamental buying? No, it was simply another exercise in short covering on a grand scale. That, in a nutshell, has been behind every one of these bear market rallies this year.

 

I am expecting several more days of up-and-down consolidation before traders try to move the markets higher. I will keep my fingers crossed that this relief rally continues.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

This week, investors are once again thinking that the Federal Reserve Bank will soon be pivoting away from its hawkish interest rate hikes. It is the same old song of misplaced optimism that has fueled the last few bear market rallies. Enjoy this one while it lasts.

 

Last week, I advised investors that the S&P 500 Index decline to the 3,550 level and then reverse higher. "I will use that behavior to purchase stocks. If we continue higher, buy some more," I said.

 

I was off by a mere 20 points (the S&P 500 hit 3,570 last Friday). On Monday, stocks soared with all the indexes climbing almost 6% in an epic "V" shaped bounce. As I said in my last column, "Bear market rallies, of which we have had several this year, can be powerful. The October-into-November time period could be an ideal time where we could see another such relief rally. 

 

Driving markets higher is another spin on Fed easing. This time traders are betting that the U.S. jobs market is starting to weaken, pointing to the number of job openings in August, which declined by more than one million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey (JOLTS) data. Friday’s jobs data dampened some of that euphoria.

 

Non-farm payrolls data for September 2022 came in at a 263,000 increase, which was a bit higher than the 255,000 jobs expected, while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent versus 3.7 percent expected. Average hourly earnings were up 0.3 percent, in line with forecasts. Although the results were statistically insignificant, it gave traders an excuse to take profits from the week’s healthy gains.

 

Another key barometer, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing survey fell to a 28-month low in September as high interest rates and inflation dented growth. To the markets, bad economic news is good news for stocks.

 

The thinking is that the race to raise rates by central banks worldwide (the U.S. included) has been overdone. The decline in growth of global economies is happening far faster than anyone expected and if that's true, a pivot by the Fed will come sooner than expected.

 

The bulls are already pointing to the U.K.'s rate shock, which forced the British central bank to support the markets and trouble at Credit Suisse, a major European bank, that is worrying European regulators. Over in Australia, their central bank hiked interest rates less than expected.

 

All of this has created a "buy loop" where bad economic data was signaling to the bulls that the terminal Fed funds rate (4.25 percent-4.50 percent) is as high as interest rates will go. That led to a declining dollar, stable-to-lower bond yields, and rising equities, as bears covered their shorts. I suspect this story could carry the markets higher into mid-November. However, don't expect markets to move straight up. Each economic data point (like the jobs report) will provide an excuse for traders to move markets up or down, but overall, the trend will be your friend. Dips should be opportunities to buy.

 

I favor beneficiaries of a declining dollar and lower bond yields to outperform in this kind of environment, focusing on precious metals, especially silver. Technology, communications services, consumer discretionary, financials, utilities and the Kathy Wood stocks will fill out my list.

 

Last week, silver soared 8 percent before profit taking set in. Oil was not far behind. However, make no mistake, this is simply another bear market rally. The Fed will continue to warn markets that their buy loop is a work of fiction. As one Fed head put it, "don't mistake market volatility for market instability." Markets will continue to ignore them.

 

At some point, sadly, investors are going to realize that bad economic news and slower growth truly are going to be bad news for the stock market. Then, the buy loop will become the doom loop, but that will require a few weeks to sink in.

 

In the meantime, I expect stocks to give back about half of last week's gains. I am looking at the S&P 500 Index falling back to around 3,650-3,675 (give or take), before again bouncing higher mid-week.