Home About Archives RSS Feed

@theMarket: Break Out

Bill Schmick

It would appear that November's pull back in the stock market is over. From top to bottom, the S&P 500 Index lost 4.5 percent and regained 3 percent of that in just the last two days. That feels to me like a break out.

Having gone from oversold to overbought in less than one week, I would suspect that a small dip in the averages is warranted, but that would only be an opportunity to buy in my opinion. Last week, I advised investors not to be too worried about last week's sell-off. I had a hunch that new data would indicate that the economy is improving. That turned out to be the case. I expect a continued stream of better news on the economy over the next few months that will surpass most investor's expectations.

In my last column, I wrote that "the only possible fly in the ointment I see right now is the failure of Congress to act on the looming expiration of the Bush tax cuts." I implored readers to put their legislators on notice that the tax-cut extensions were their No. 1 priority. Washington must have been reading my columns because on Monday morning both parties met and began working on that extension. With luck, it looks like a compromise could be reached before Christmas.

At the same time, the president's deficit reduction team presented a variety of far-reaching ideas to cut the deficit (see Thursday's column "And Now for That Deficit"). Between those developments stateside, plus the potential bailout of Ireland as well as some strong industrial production numbers from China, set us up for a rally.

Although we have yet to break above April's highs in the S&P 500 Index, over on the NASDAQ we have breached that barrier, as has the Dow. The consumer discretionary, industrial, energy and materials sectors have all broken out to bull market highs as well this week. These sectors all appear to be in a solid uptrend, despite looking a bit extended on a short term basis. Financials continue to move sideways as do some of the more defensive sectors such as utilities, health care, consumer stables and telecom.

Bullish sentiment has also been rising but is still below 50 percent, although next week's figure from the American Association of Individual Investors may show a bigger increase after this recent rally. As a contrarian indicator, bullish sentiment is not yet at worrisome levels.

Remember too that the bulls have the wind at their backs. The economy is growing, (despite the high unemployment rate) as businesses begin to invest in plant and equipment. Although the housing market is bumping along the bottom, it is at least stabilizing, and exports are growing thanks to the weakening dollar. Finally remember that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is on record in wanting stock prices higher (see "Don't Fight the Fed" ). All in all, that is a powerful combination that should drive the markets higher. How high?

On the S&P 500 Index 1,300 is a good round number. That's a potential gain that might even entice some of those investors sitting in bonds to come out and play in the equity markets. As for where I see the most potential gains: emerging markets, mines and metals, energy, technology and possibly real estate are my bets.

Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.

Tags: tax cut, deficit, housing      

Support Local News

We show up at hurricanes, budget meetings, high school games, accidents, fires and community events. We show up at celebrations and tragedies and everything in between. We show up so our readers can learn about pivotal events that affect their communities and their lives.

How important is local news to you? You can support independent, unbiased journalism and help iBerkshires grow for as a little as the cost of a cup of coffee a week.

News Headlines
Williamstown Con Comm Approves Hopkins Bridge Replacement
State Unemployment and Job Estimates for October
Mass RMV Offering Learner’s Permit Exams in Spanish, Portuguese
We Can be Thankful for Vermont's Wild Turkeys
Four Berkshire Nonprofits Receive Grants for Youth Health
Hancock School Celebrates Thanksgiving by Highlighting Community
Swann, Williams Women Place Third at Natinoals
Community Hero: Noelle Howland
Fairview Hospital Receives the 2024 Women's Choice Award
Butternut Fire Contained; Conditions Improve
 
 


Categories:
@theMarket (509)
Independent Investor (452)
Retired Investor (217)
Archives:
November 2024 (6)
November 2023 (1)
October 2024 (9)
September 2024 (7)
August 2024 (9)
July 2024 (8)
June 2024 (7)
May 2024 (10)
April 2024 (6)
March 2024 (7)
February 2024 (8)
January 2024 (8)
December 2023 (9)
Tags:
Stock Market Jobs Interest Rates Deficit Stimulus Oil Debt Ceiling Japan Unemployment Pullback Qeii President Markets Metals Bailout Retirement Greece Economy Energy Banks Europe Fiscal Cliff Selloff Commodities Crisis Congress Euro Taxes Stocks Election Rally Federal Reserve Currency Debt Recession
Popular Entries:
The Independent Investor: Don't Fight the Fed
Independent Investor: Europe's Banking Crisis
@theMarket: Let the Good Times Roll
The Independent Investor: Japan — The Sun Is Beginning to Rise
Independent Investor: Enough Already!
@theMarket: Let Silver Be A Lesson
Independent Investor: What To Expect After a Waterfall Decline
@theMarket: One Down, One to Go
@theMarket: 707 Days
The Independent Investor: And Now For That Deficit
Recent Entries:
@theMarket: Stocks Should Climb into Thanksgiving
The Retired Investor: Thanksgiving Dinner May Be Slightly Cheaper This Year
@theMarket: Profit-Taking Trims Post-Election Gains
The Retired Investor: Jailhouse Stocks
The Retired Investor: The Trump Trades
@theMarket: Will Election Fears Trigger More Downside
The Retired Investor: Betting on Elections Comes of Age
@theMarket: Election Unknowns Keep Markets on Edge
The Retired Investor: Natural Diamonds Take Back Seat to Lab-Grown Stones
@theMarket: As Election Approaches, Markets' Volatility Should Increase