Since 1928, the S&P 500 Index has lost ground in September more than 55 percent of the time. It looks like this year will be true to form.

 

It is called "The September Effect" and no one market or news event has been responsible for this anomaly. Some attribute the negative results to seasonal behavior bias. After a good summer of gains, like this summer’s bear market rally, investors make portfolio changes and cash in on their gains.

 

Since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has booked a decline of 0.8 percent on average. If we go back further in history (since 1928), the S&P 500 Index has averaged a 1 percent decline during September. However, over the last 25 years those losses have more than halved to only minus-0.4 percent.

 

Those declines seem almost laughable today in a market where stocks go up or down by that much in less than an hour.

 

You may have noticed that investors' attention has become laser-focused on the jobs data. Unemployment claims, continuing claims, job gains, non-farm payrolls and anything else that smacks of employment or the lack thereof is moving markets dramatically. As you might have guessed, this is the data the Federal Reserve Bank is carefully scanning in order to determine how far the monetary belt needs to be tightened.

 

Strong labor markets mean higher wage growth in a jobs market where supply and demand are out of balance. Wages are far stickier and therefore more important to the long-term rate of inflation than what gasoline or food prices happen to do this month or next. And since the Fed is data-driven, so are investors.

 

Of course, no single week or month's data point will move the Fed to cinch or uncinch their tightening belt — that is not the case with the stock and bond markets. From my point of view, it is ludicrous to move stocks up or down 2 or 3 percent a day based on a Thursday or a Fridays' report. The stock market prop desks and algo traders obviously disagree.

 

What's worse, the numbers are highly inaccurate, according to the federal government's own labor department, since data collection has been hit or miss ever since the pandemic. It is also subject to large revisions sometimes weeks and months afterwards, but no one ever trades on the revisions.

 

A case in point was the jobless claims for the week of Aug. 27. They came in at 232,000, which was below the estimates for 245,000. Therefore, fewer workers applied for unemployment insurance. That was great for the economy, but terrible for the stock market since it indicated a growing economy and more reason for the Fed to tighten.

 

Even worse, unit labor costs (think inflation) increased 9.3 percent over the last four quarters, the highest level since the first quarter of 1982. An hour later, stocks dropped more than 1 percent, interest rates spiked and so did the dollar.

 

On Friday, Sept. 2, at 8:30 a.m., the non-farm payrolls report beat estimates slightly (315,000 jobs gained in August), while the unemployment rate ticked up from 3.7 percent versus the expected 3.5 percent. Average hourly earnings month-over-month dropped, as did average hourly earnings, year-over-year came in at 5.2 percent versus 5.3 percent expected. Downward revisions from prior months labor gains helped improve the mood as well.

 

The markets deemed this a "goldilocks" report, so the algos bid up stocks and bonds, sold the U.S. dollar and interest rates fell; all in the pre-market. I wouldn't take any of these gyrations seriously. I put it down to traders looking for any excuse on a slow week before a major holiday to improve their trading profits.

 

As predicted, the S&P 500 Index hit 3,900 this week. That was the upper end of my target range. I was looking for a decline with a range of 3,800 to 3,900. I had been warning investors that the bear market rally we had enjoyed since June 2022 was ending. I expected that we would give back most, if not all, of that rally in the September into October timeframe. We are right on schedule. Now what?

 

Expect a bounce to as high as 4,030 in the first half of next week, and then a further decline to the low 3,800s. The stairstep of lower highs on rallies, and lower lows on declines is playing out just the way I expected. The question I have been asking myself is will stocks hold those levels, or are we destined to re-test or possibly break the June lows. Stay tuned for next week's columns, and in the meantime enjoy the three-day weekend that marks the unofficial end of summer.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell set investors straight at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium. He said the job of lowering inflation is not done, and that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in order to slow the economy.

 

"We must keep at it until the job is done," Powell said, during his speech.

 

That was enough to send stocks lower after a few days of gains. At the same time, the U.S. dollar fell, as did interest rate yields, which is somewhat counter intuitive given Powell's hawkish statement. The inflation data released on Friday morning showed a little progress on the fight against inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, (PCE), a closely watched indicator, eased to 4.7 percent, slightly below forecasts of 4.8 percent.

 

Month-over-month, the PCE index increased by 0.2 percent in April, which was much lower than the 0.9 percent rise in March 2022. Lower inflation in investors' minds means the Fed does not need to tighten monetary policy as much. That would translate into less downward pressure on the economy and better corporate earnings. Powell said we are not at that stage quite yet.

 

On the economic front, the data continues to conflict.  U.S. second quarter GDP was revised upward this week from minus-0.08 percent to minus-0.06 percent. As readers may know, Gross Domestic Product measures the value of goods and services. Another data point the Fed follows closely is a subset of GDP called Global Domestic Income (GDI). GDI measures the progress of labor income. That number gained plus-1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2022.

 

Most economists tend to average these two variables together in order to get a better picture on how the economy is really fairing. If we do that, GDP in the first quarter 2022 would have been a gain of plus-0.1 percent and a positive 0.4 percent in the second quarter, instead of two negative quarters in a row, according to headline GDP. Granted, both quarters would still be below the long-term trend of GDP, but not quite recessionary just yet.

 

However, rising interest rates are impacting economic growth. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, for example, showed that job openings have fallen by 1.1 million between March and June 2022.

 

Indexes based on online job listings, compiled by two job search engines, Indeed and LinkUp, suggest that the trend in job openings continued to decline in July and August. Other economic data that shows a decline is pending home sales, that are now down 22.5 percent, versus last year, and durable goods orders are flat to down.  That data should encourage the Fed in their efforts to slow the growth in the economy.

 

The gains in the market this past week were expected.  Stocks lost 2.4 percent in three days and then bounced. Gains pushed the S&P 500 Index up to the 4,200 level before rolling over. The way things are set up right now, we should see the market bounce up somewhat for a day or so next week, but I expect a series of lower lows by the end of next week. The bounces we get will disappoint and fail to make higher highs. That is my best case. If things get out of hand, we could just continue to drop down to 3,900 on the S&P 500 Index. In any case, my playbook for September into October 2022 is down.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

 

This week's decline in two key inflation indicators gave investors an excuse to buy stocks. At this point, we have retraced 50 percent of the losses from the beginning of the year. The thinking behind this recent move higher is that inflation is coming down, and the Fed no longer needs to maintain its super tight monetary policy stance. Is that a good bet?

 

That is not the case, according to several talking Fed heads that were trotted out by the U.S. central bank to address the markets on almost a daily basis this week. Even the most dovish of members continued to stress that nothing has changed in their thinking. To a person, each Federal Reserve member stressed that the market should expect another interest rate hike in their September 2022 FOMC meeting. In addition, the reduction in their balance sheet will continue unabated.

 

Clearly, investors do not believe these warnings. The bulls are confident that inflation will continue to decline to the point that the Fed will change its mind. As such, that belief is enough to support if not justify further purchases. It certainly is an enticing story considering the data.

 

Everyone should have been pleased with the inflation data. It points to a peak in inflation. Both the Consumer Price Index CPI), and the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in lower than expected. However, both the CPI rate of plus-8.5 percent, and the PPI gain of 9.8 percent are still a long, long way from the Fed's official target of 2 percent inflation. Even if we had zero additional inflation for the remainder of the year we would not reach the Fed's 2 percent target.

 

Some bullish investors may also be betting that since we won't know what the Fed is going to do until September, markets can continue to rock and roll at least for another week or two. As it is, the bond vigilantes have already reduced their expectations of how much the Fed will raise rates from 75 to 50 basis points at that meeting.

 

Most of the decline in both the CPI and PPI can be credited to the price decline in energy. Nationwide, we are seeing gasoline prices below $4 a gallon, while oil has dropped recently to below $90 a barrel. But here's the rub.

 

The Fed has little influence over the future price of oil. Geopolitical events, currencies, and global supply and demand are much weightier factors in determining where the price of oil goes next. What if oil climbs above $100 a barrel next week? What will that do to the future CPI report, and how would markets handle that?

 

As I have been advising readers for weeks my target for the S&P 500 Index on this bounce was 4,100 to 4,200, give or take a few points. This week we hit 4,257. Now what?

 

I warned readers back in June 2022 that after this relief rally, "somewhere in middle to late August," we would start a decline that could take us back down to 3,800 to retest or slightly break the year's lows. That remains my forecast.

 

However, this decline will be accomplished in fits and starts. Investors are caught in the throes of greed and FOMO.  So, for example, next week we could see a series of shallow pullbacks, only to have those who have missed this rally buy the dip. These Johnny-come-latelies will expect even higher highs. They may even push us back toward 4,250 on the S&P 500. However, by the end of next week we should be declining.

 

This kind of market action could continue for the next few weeks. As it does, I would expect the markets to be making lower lows, and lower highs. By September 2022, we will likely see the lows I am forecasting. What is my thinking behind this rather gloomy prediction?

 

I expect oil prices have bottomed for now and will rise over the next few weeks. Geopolitical tensions could heat up as well adding tension to global markets. The Fed will continue to tighten, despite the atmosphere of hopefication that has infected investors right now. Corporate earnings will continue to fall and profit warnings will become more commonplace as the economy continues to slow.

 

None of my thoughts are original. I am simply echoing the bear case. The only difference is that I have been predicting this since December 2021.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

The markets embraced another 75-basis point interest rate hike by the Fed, even as the U.S. economy contracted for the second quarter in a row. Bad news became good news in today's markets.

 

It was not so much the hike in the Fed funds rate announced as part of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting on July 27, 2022, as it was the words of Chairperson Jerome Powell in the Q&A session afterward. Although he really did not say anything new, the markets and the media interpreted his stance as more dovish, if not pivotal.

 

The bulls' argument is that the economy is slowing, inflation is peaking, and therefore the Fed is likely to slow, if not stop, its interest rate hikes altogether in the months ahead. This argument carries more weight now that the nation's economy fell by 0.9 percent in the second quarter, while economists expected a gain of 0.4 percent.

 

But the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) announced for June 2022 came in hotter than expected (6.8 percent versus the 6.7 percent expected). It is a key variable the Fed watches closely, which would indicate inflation is still climbing.

 

Now depending on your politics, we are technically in a recession, defined by two negatives quarters in a row of declining growth. The Biden administration denies that is the official definition. Economists, according to their argument, evaluate the state of the business cycle based on a slew of variables such as the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. None of those items conclusively prove we are in a recession.

 

My take is if it looks like a duck, and feels like a duck, then mostly likely, it is a duck. If we are not in a recession, then the alternative would be stagflation.

 

Corporate earnings seem to indicate a slowing of the economy. Social media stocks, which depend on advertising for a great deal of their revenues, are seeing a strong decline in spending. Those companies that have been able to pass on higher cost through price rises are doing okay, but few companies are hitting results out of the park.

 

Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft earnings, while not great, were at least less bad than many expected. Their share prices gained (some substantially), which buoyed the market and has allowed the relief rally to continue to climb.

 

A surprise breakthrough between Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, and Senator Joe Manchin on a whittled-down $430 billion spending program cheered the markets.  The agreement would increase corporate taxes, lower the cost of prescription drugs, reduce the national debt, and invest in energy technologies that will focus on reducing climate change.

 

The bill is touted to reduce the deficit by $300 billion over 10 years, and lower carbon emissions by about 40 percent by 2030. It has been dubbed the "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022," although nothing in the bill except its title would have any impact on inflation this year or even next. For individuals, it would provide a $7,500 tax credit to buy new electric vehicles. It would also provide a $410 billion tax credit to manufacturing facilities for things like electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar panels.

 

The cost of the compromise bill is much lower than the multi-trillion, "Build Back Better" plan originally proposed by the Biden administration. The thinking is that no Republicans in either the House or Senate will vote for the bill, so the reconciliation process is the direction Democrats will use to pass the bill. If Democrats are to be believed, the bill should pass as early as next week

 

It was no surprise that the sectors that would benefit most from this spending plan rose on the announcement. The alternative energy sectors gained on the news, as did oil and gas stocks.  By Friday, the S&P 500 Index broke the 4,100 level and some think 4,200 will be the next level that the bulls are targeting. Could we get there, given the belief that the Fed may pause in its tightening program? Sure, but we are already over extended. We are running on empty as far as buying juice is concerned, so if we are going to get there, we need to pullback first. That may happen early next week but for now things look good at least into mid-August, and then down again.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Rising inflation, weaker earnings expectations, or the rocketing U.S. dollar, it is just a question of which of these negatives are hurting the markets most. Investors are frightened, but not yet panicked. It is time to pay attention.

 

Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June 2022 came in hotter than economists expected. They are backward-looking indicators, but markets fell on the reports, nonetheless. Rising energy prices was the biggest culprits in both reports hamstringing consumers and producers as prices soared. Since then, the price of oil has dropped, although natural gas prices have risen, so we will have to wait and see how much energy impacts this July's data.

 

However, with the higher year-over year CPI gain of 9.1 percent, coupled with the PPI's gain of 11.3 percent, the bond market is now betting on a one-in-two chance of a super-sized move in July's FOMC meeting of as much as a 100-basis point. Another 75 basis points is now also in play for the Fed's September meeting.

 

Corporate earnings for the second quarter kicked off this week. The money center banks announced poor earnings and even gloomier guidance. Investors have been expecting disappointments across the board, although some argued that poorer earnings were already reflected in the price of the stocks. Tell that to JP Morgan, the premier U.S. banking company, that saw its stock fall by more than 4 percent.

 

But the most troubling event is the continued climb in the U.S. dollar. I have advised readers over the last month to watch the level of the greenback. It is now trading at parity with the Euro. The last time this happened was in 2002, but it is not just the Euro. The dollar has been hitting 20-year highs against the currencies of its major trading partners as well.

 

As I have written before, a currency's exchange rate is a reflection on a country's economic prospects. In the case of Europe, higher energy prices, the Ukraine war, and record inflation have damaged the prospects for economic growth. As the European Unions' energy supplies dwindle, inflation has climbed by more than 8 percent and talk of rationing national gas supplies to industries is now on the table.

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) is between a rock and a hard place. If they raise interest rates to combat inflation, it could have a disastrous impact on the EU economy, which is already teetering on the edge, thanks to the war and energy embargos. But going slow on tightening monetary policy will only fuel higher inflation.

 

The U.S. may be facing its own bout of recession for some of the same reasons. The difference is that our Federal Reserve Bank has been more aggressive in tightening monetary policy than the ECB. And while energy prices are high in the U.S., they are still lower than in Europe. Natural gas prices, for example, are ninefold higher than in the U.S.

 

As far as currency markets today, it comes down to who has the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry basket. The U.S. dollar wins that contest hands down. However, the downside for many American companies is that revenues and earnings generated overseas, and then repatriate are worth less. If instead, managements decide to keep their Euro earnings in Europe to cover costs there, the exchange rate becomes less of an issue. Another downside is that a stronger dollar makes American exports more expensive, which reduces U.S. economic output and widens the trade deficit.

 

Over the last week or so, Wall Street analysts have been scurrying to reduce their earnings estimates for more than 500 companies for this second quarter. It would not surprise me if equity strategists began to reduce their year-end estimates downward for the market averages. Talk of a more aggressive need to raise interest rates sooner than later to combat inflation, coupled with recession fears, is the motivating factor behind these moves.

 

The next FOMC meeting is drawing closer (July 26-27), which won't be good news for the markets, and in the meantime, we have an earnings season to contend with. At best, I expect to see a volatile market as earnings surprises, both positive and negative, send markets careening up and down through the rest of the month.