| Home | About | Archives | RSS Feed |
The Independent Investor: Retailers' Easter Baskets Full
 "... He's got jellybeans for Tommy,Colored eggs for sister Sue, There's an orchid for your Mommy And an Easter bonnet, too." "Peter Cottontail" by Steve Nelson & Jack Rollins
|
This year's early spring could mean a little extra cash in retailers' Easter baskets. Despite gasoline prices approaching $4 a gallon, consumers are shopping for everything from hams to hydrangeas.
Overall revenues are expecting to increase by 11-14 percent. That would make three years in a row in which retail revenues have risen in the March/April period. The unseasonably warm weather we have been enjoying has helped chain store sales post their best weekly gains in more than 11 years. Easter also happens to have arrived 16 days early this year. The combination of the two developments could mean as much as $16.9 billion more this year, according to the National Retail Federation.
Easter is the 4th largest spending holiday in America after
Christmas, back-to-school, and only slightly smaller than Valentine's Day. The average consumer is expected to spend $145.28 (up 10.9 percent from 2011) and 25 percent higher than the dark days of 2009. The average male shopper will outspend women, with shoppers in the 25-44 years age category spending the most.Almost 19 percent of Americans will shop online this year while as many as 46 percent of shoppers will at least use their mobile devices to comparison shop and/or research product and retailer information. Yet, Americans are still looking for a deal. Over 63 percent of spenders are heading to discount stores as their first stop for Easter purchases, followed by department stores (42 percent) and specialty stores (25.4 percent)
My first stop will be at the supermarket, where I will pick up a free turkey or ham as a result of accumulating $300 in shopping points over the last two months. It is no surprise to me that food is the top category of spending for Easter and Passover with 87.7 percent of shoppers buying $5.11 billion in ham, lamb, turkey, and fish with all the trimmings. Ham prices have been higher than usual over the last two years, thanks to high feed costs. A typical ham is selling wholesale for 75 to 80 cents per pound this spring, well above the 55 cents per pound it has averaged for the previous five years.
Candy is also a big item. Easter comes in second after Halloween as the top candy selling event of the year, according to the National Confection Association. We will spend $2.346 billion to fill our children's Easter baskets this year, spending an average of $20.35 each for sweets. Flowers and greeting cards on the other hand, while experiencing healthy sales, are not as important during this holiday. Still, Hallmark Cards reports Americans will send $57 million greeting cards this season, which makes Easter the fifth highest holiday sales period for them.
More than 7,500 warm temperature records were set last month. The warmest March on record was set for Chicago, Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, Detroit, Kansas City, Nashville, Indianapolis and Tampa, while it was the second warmest month in the history of New York City and Philadelphia. The warm, dry weather in two-thirds of the country spurred additional sales in a host of product lines. Spending for lawn and garden supplies was up 39 percent in March over last year. My wife, Barbara, had a hard time buying a rake at our local Tractor Supply store because the sales clerk said they had been sold out weeks before.
Spring clothing sales are also benefiting from the demand for new Easter outfits, while young and old alike are shedding overcoats and scarves to hunt for that perfect pair of shorts or tank top.
All in all, Easter this year should be gangbusters. What retailers worry about now is whether the strong sales now are only pulling demand forward. Will the heavier spending carry over into the summer or will shoppers, having depleted their spending limit, simply put their hands back in their pockets until the fall? I suspect additional consumer spending will depend upon how strong the economy will be and how fast unemployment will fall during the next several months. In the meantime, I wish you my readers a Happy Easter and Passover.
Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.
The Independent Investor: Hire a Veteran
Over 2.2 million of our men and women have served in Afghanistan and Iraq. Today 7.6 percent of them are looking for jobs. Hiring them should be a no-brainer for this country's employers.Don't get me wrong, things have improved for returning Gulf War era veterans over the last two years. In 2010, their unemployment rate was 11.6 percent and spiked to 12.1 percent in 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fortunately, the economy has improved since then and both the public and private sectors have pitched in to aid our returning vets in their job search.
However, more needs to be done. Although 1.9 million of these ex-soldiers hold private-sector jobs today, another 90,000 troops are expected to return from Afghanistan by 2014. The good news is that the economy seems to be healing and the jobless rate has come down to 8.5 percent Say what you want about the Obama administration, they are doing a good job at getting the word out that our veterans come first, in my opinion.
The president has launched a Veterans Job Corps and has offered tax breaks for companies that hire vets under his VOW to Hire Heroes Act. The White House's "Joining Forces" initiative, led by the first lady Michelle Obama and Dr. Jill Biden, is also telegraphing the nationwide message to "Hire a Vet, Hire a Vet."
In addition, the Department of Veterans Affairs is doing all it can to convince America's corporate world that veterans should be a prime ingredient of their work force.
The VA has put on job fairs to woo private and public-sector employers into interviewing more vets with some success. The VA's selling points, when pitching the strengths of veterans, are their self-discipline, problem-solving skills, decision-making under stressful circumstances and their attention to detail. It also helps that most veterans are team players. I happen to agree with all of the above.
Back in the day, (when I returned home from a stint in Vietnam) I needed and found a job as an apprentice machinist in my hometown of Philadelphia. It was a culture shock. A factory floor replaced the jungle canopy that was my home for almost two years. I knew nothing about cutting bars of steel into aircraft nuts and bolts, but I was willing to learn.
Granted, I was no longer making life and death decisions on a day-to-day basis as leader of my Marine unit, but it was a job and I was grateful to have one. After all, no one was shooting at me. To be honest, it was monotonous, boring, dirty work, but I stuck with it and did a commendable job (according to my boss) until it was time to start my college education. Believe me, vets know they have to start over and learn from the bottom.
Since all the focus seems to be on Gulf War soldiers, for those pre-9/11 veterans who may feel left out, The Veterans Retraining Assistance Program, which is part of the VOW to Hire Heroes Act, will begin offering 12 months of GI Bill benefits for older unemployed vets by this summer. Vets who qualify may be able to receive as much as $17,600 for education and training.
And don't believe all that malarkey about post-traumatic stress disorder. The Rand Corp.'s 2008 study indicated that almost one in five returning vets suffered from PTSD may be true but that still leaves over 80 percent of Gulf War vets without PTSD. I'm almost sure all front-line soldiers (regardless of their war era) suffered from some PTSD. I know I did when I returned from Vietnam. Remember, too, our homecoming was much different from today's treatment of returning soldiers. Call me lucky, but the trauma of war plus the ostracism I felt from Americans at home never interfered with my job performance and, over time, I got over it without medical assistance. Most vets do.
Today's exodus of soldiers after 10 years of war in the Middle East reminds me of a similar time in America's history. I wrote about it in a past column:
"When WW II ended in 1945, 16 million Americans (one out of eight) were serving their country in some capacity. With returning vets looking for work, many feared we were heading for massive unemployment and another Depression unless Washington did something about it. In 1944, the GI Bill of Rights was passed. It gave servicemen unemployment checks, low-interest housing, business loans and a free college education.
"Nearly 8 million vets took advantage of that benefit and in the process drove the U.S. illiteracy rate to 3 percent, the lowest level in American history. It also transformed our economy, creating a massive Technocracy, while introducing the age of information."
We may be on the verge of yet another such experience (if smaller) that could boost our future economic prospects simply by harnessing the power of these returning heroes today. I say we have nothing to lose and a whole lot to gain by hiring a vet.
Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.
The Independent Investor: Stubble and Scruff
Facial hair is back in a big way among men. That is nothing new, but the time, effort and expense of looking so scruffy might surprise you.Back in the day, you were either clean shaven or grew a beard. During the Hippie Era, it was all long hair and beards, which sent many a barber to the poor house. Hair length gradually shortened, beards and moustaches were trimmed and barbers breathed a sigh of relief. Over a decade ago, American men grew older and fatter. To add insult to injury, their hair started to thin as well. The fashion industry quickly came to the rescue and convinced the nation that bald was beautiful.
I, for one, embraced the idea and quickly learned to shave my own head. For me, an avid jock, no hair was both convenient and saved a trip to the barber. However, maintaining that clean shaven pate is no easy job and many men sought out the barbershop to maintain the new style. But the fashion industry was not done with the masculine ego. Enter the man's man.
First, let me confess my ignorance. In my naivety, I had long assumed that the facial hair that had sprouted up among male actors in a variety of television and movie roles was simply the result of not shaving for a day or two. How wrong could I be? These new facial-hair styles demand a lot of time, effort and expense and have spawned a plethora of trimmers, shavers and masks to give the customer just the right look,
Today, facial hair is part of what the fashionistas call the Retrosexual Revolution. It is an era in which men are looking back to the styles, values and pastimes of traditional masculinity, albeit with a heightened discernment about brands, aesthetics and lifestyle. Sort of "Mad Men" with a dash of political correctness.
This new flannel-clad urban woodsman (for those who can afford it) will normally sport a carefully clipped or trimmed five o'clock shadow across his jowls while displaying his single-malt scotch collection or his fixed-gear touring bike. The image appears to resound mightily among American males.
As a result, more men than ever before are visiting the barbershop. Last year, there were more than 235,000 barbers in over 100,000 shops in the United States. That is the highest in recent memory and is predicted to jump again this year according to the National Association of Barbers Boards of America.
Sales of beard and stubble trimmers (as they are now called) advanced 14 percent in 2010, 17 percent last year and should top that again in 2012. And stubble trimmers aren't cheap. A top-of–the-line stubble model will set you back $60, about twice as much as your old-fashioned beard trimmer. Grooming companies such as Conair, Phillips Norelco and Wahl have taken special care to deal with facial hair at close range and have succeeded in segmenting the market.
Now, if you have the desire, you can get just the right length of stubble each day by picking up the stubble trimmer. But if instead you like a slightly longer look called Scruff (the George Clooney look) you can buy another trimmer that will convince one and all that you could grow a full beard if you wanted to, but choose not to. Full beards require a heavy-duty trimmer while goatees, moustaches and sideburns all require different trimmers. Of course, if that is not enough, one can always go "feral" and grow your beard until you look like Heidi's grandfather.
Yet self-barbering takes effort, practice and often less than satisfactory results. Many men have opted instead to visit their neighborhood barbershop breathing new life into the staid and sometimes stuffy local hair emporium. Unisex is out. Barbers have reinvented their industry by offering customers what they want, the way they want it. The top 10 barbershops in the U.S. all have one thing in common — ambience. Masculinity, tradition, and a variety of services is what distinguish barbershops today from those of my childhood.
Barber schools grew at a 29 percent rate last year and becoming a barber has appeared on several new career lists. Opening a barbershop has also become a "hot startup" area given that the barriers to entry are low, startup costs are reasonable and competition tame.
A simple survey of barbershops in the Northeast confirmed that "business is good" as Patty, a barber at The Clip Joint Barbers in Portsmouth, N.H., said.
Bob McGiffert, who owns Bob's Barber Shop in Greenport, N.Y., also agreed that haircuts were doing well, although he "doesn't see much traffic in stubble and such."
In Rutland, Vt., Steve, a barber since 1988, works at Henry's, an establishment celebrating 57 years in business. He is seeing a "lot more goatees" in his business lately. "It just adds to the product line."
And finally Nancy Donovan, who has been cutting hair for over a decade at Ken's Barber Shop in Great Barrington, is seeing a lot of facial-hair trim requests, especially in the summer.
"We have a lot of city people that vacation here in the summertime," she said, "and we get all sorts of requests."
She says she has done everything from shaving heads, to regular haircuts to even cutting a "B" for Boston on one customer's head after the World Series over the last few years.
As for the barbering business, she enjoys her line of work and would recommend that anyone wanting a great career should look into becoming a barber. Take that George Clooney!
Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.
The Independent Investor: Clients Last? Welcome to Wall Street
 |
| Sam Rogers, head of trading: "And you're selling something that you 'know' has no value." John Tuld, CEO: "We are selling to willing buyers at the current market price." John Tuld: "So that we may survive." — "Margin Call"
|
If you ever wondered where you stand on Wall Street, the op-ed piece in Wednesday's New York Times is a must read. The fallout from the words of a 12-year veteran of one of the world's most prestigious investment firm is resonating around the world.
It is not necessary for me to identify either the firm or the writer, since just about everyone now knows who I am talking about it. Yesterday, my inbox was deluged with readers who forwarded me the piece. Most readers are aware that I have a huge beef with the ethics on Wall Street and what I see as the "customer comes last" attitude that is prevalent within that sector.
As has happened in the past, I'm sure that after this column runs I will receive a flurry of hate mail from those in the financial community, who believe I am attacking them personally. I'm not. Most individuals in this business are decent folks who do care about their clients –when they are allowed.
Unfortunately, they work for firms that cannot put the interests of their clients first or even in the top ten of their business objectives. These firms are just too big, too short-term and too focused on next year's bonuses to afford the luxury of putting their clients first.
Now, I know for the most part I am preaching to the choir at this moment. As the facts have come out about just how duplicitous these companies and their managements have been in creating, exacerbating and finally being rewarded for the financial crisis they engineered. Is it any wonder that very few Americans trust Wall Street?
Despite financial legislation and promises of a new ethic by those caught with their hand in the cookie jar, it is very much business as usual on Wall Street. It cannot be otherwise. When I first got into the business in the early 1980s, the big names on the Street were largely partnerships with long-term relationships with their clients. It was a world where trust among your clients was your most valuable asset.
The shift from private to public companies, the end of fixed commissions, the dawn of proprietary trading (firms trading their own capital), the escalation of risk and with it much greater rewards, altered the ethics of finance. These new masters of the financial universe embraced greed and abandoned the old ways. As a result, they saw their total pay skyrocket 70 percent above average paychecks in all other industries in the last decade.
Big became not only beautiful but mandatory in this new high stakes area. The bigger you are, the more muscle you can throw around, not only with your competitors but with your customers as well. Clients become numbers to be crunched. Today, these firms are so big that they truly are "too big to fail." And because they are, they are largely immune from retribution or legislation.
I say we should salute this middle-management executive and his op-ed piece. He most likely will face legal and monetary retribution from his ex-firm. You see, almost everyone on Wall Street must sign both a non-compete contract as well as agree not to say anything disparaging about their firm upon departure (whether voluntary or not).
If you violate these agreements, the company will and does come after you with the full weight of their legal departments. It is one of the reasons that so few ex-employees actually "tell all" when they quit. Although this guy's opinion will amount to no more than a cry in the darkness, he should be commended and remembered for his courage and honesty.
Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.
The Independent Investor: Child Labor: An American Tradition
 |
The words "child labor" evokes visions in our minds of wretched children working in filthy factories or dangerous coal mines with little to eat and even less compensation. The universally accepted definition of child labor is the "employment of children in regular and sustained labor." Most countries ban that kind of child labor, but what about other forms of labor?
I had my first paper route at 11 years old. By the following year I was also delivering Sunday papers, waking up at 4 a.m. and working until noon. By my 14th birthday, I was working at Duff's, my neighborhood drug store in Philadelphia, serving soda and making change for the neighborhood after school. During the summers, I worked even harder: cutting lawns, bagging in supermarkets and even hauling hot roofing tar up two stories on occasion. I always had money, was rarely bored, made OK grades in school and received a fabulous education that I could have never obtained in school.
In the U.S., you can legally get a job at 14 as long as you work no more than three hours a day (18 hours a week during the school year or past 7 p.m.). Youths of any age can deliver newspapers, perform in radio, television, movie or theatrical productions; and baby sit or perform other minor duties around a private home. In the agricultural sector, kids can work as young as 12 years old during non-school periods. But by the age of 16, America's youth can work without restrictions or parent's consent.
In this country, there is a long tradition of kids like me, dating back to the last century. The jobs of our youth often teach us skills that are with us our whole lives. Some of the things I learned were simple things like filling out applications and more complicated skills like interviewing, working responsibly and how to get along with co-workers and, of course, the boss. Since my father started his underage work life in the coal mines near Altoona, Pa., (until he was trapped in a cave-in), my early working career seemed comparatively easy.
My daughter, Jackie, followed in the family footsteps, first as a snowboard instructor at 13 years old (almost 14). She was the snowboard director by the age of 17, managing almost 50 instructors on the weekends at a local ski slope. She credits her early work experience for giving her confidence and independence, an MVP status among her high school peers and a developed sense of responsibility that continues to this day as a new mother and as an executive at a international public relations company.
Like me, her work life kept her on the straight and narrow in school, away from parties, drugs and poor grades. She also learned the meaning of money and had enough income to pay for her own auto insurance when she learned to drive.
Now, granted, this is all anecdotal evidence. Research indicates that those teenagers who work more than 10 to 15 hours a week do receive lower grades. Many also sacrifice extracurricular activities and friendships they would have otherwise made if they weren't working as hard.
Some teens, their pockets flush with cash, have the means to experiment with drugs and alcohol, which many obtain from older co-workers. Finally, there are many cases where overworked teens spend a lot less time with their families, eating and exercising less than those kids without onerous work schedules.
Many teens' first jobs are in the retail sector such as fast food outlets, restaurants and grocery stores. Often these entry-level jobs are routine, boring and lack positive interaction with adults. It can be tough on a young person, and that's where you can add value as a parent. Encouragement, a sympathetic ear and a little compassion can go along way to help your child through that first rough year or so.
I also advise you to monitor your child's progress. Don't simply take "OK" as an answer for how work is going. And if you don't like the thought of after-school work for your teenager, summer employment is an excellent alternative.
If for some reason your kid doesn't need to earn money, there are always non-profit alternatives to choose from, like selling Girl Scout cookies or fundraising for the Boy Scouts of America or any number of charitable organizations desperate for additional help.
The point is that child labor, American-style, is a major positive in my opinion as long as it is accomplished within the guidelines above.
Bill Schmick is an independent investor with Berkshire Money Management. (See "About" for more information.) None of the information presented in any of these articles is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM. Direct your inquiries to Bill at (toll free) or email him at wschmick@fairpoint.net. Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insights.
