@theMarket: Santa's Stocking Full of Year-End Gains

It has been a heck of a year for equities. Most investors should see double-digit gains when they open their January reports. Is the best yet to come?

 

Officially, the Santa Claus rally comprises the last five trading days in December, plus the first two trading days in January. If that tradition holds, we should see further gains from here. However, many worry that Santa came early and all we face into the new year is a downside.

 

They have reason to worry. We are already quite extended. Bullish sentiment is over the top. Bond yields have dropped so low in such a short period that many traders are looking for a rebound in yields. In addition, there seems to be an attempt by Fed officials to discourage investors from expecting the central bank to start cutting interest rates in March of next year.

 

Ever since the FOMC December meeting's pivot to a more dovish stance, yields have fallen dramatically, while stocks roared higher. The "higher for longer" message they have been spouting for months about interest rates, has been replaced by "too far, too fast" when assessing the gains in financial markets over the last few weeks.

 

In the latter half of this week, we did see some profit-taking, which was to be expected. After all, by Tuesday's finish, the Dow had registered its fifth record close in a row. Most indexes were up nine or ten consecutive days in a row. The record rally had pushed the S&P 500 Index within reach of its all-time high made in January 2022.

 

It is getting to the point that investors were expecting only up days and so were somewhat shocked by Wednesday's late-day sell-off. In the last hour and a half of trade, the markets took a sudden turn lower for no apparent reason.

 

The averages were all suddenly in free-fall with no news or event that could explain the decline. The Dow dropped more than 475 points, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ declined more than 1.5 percent each. The small-cap Russel 2,000 lost the most at 1.89 percent. What happened?

 

Those readers who read my column last week — "Zero-Date Options Boost Market Risks" — have a leg up on how and why this sudden downdraft occurred. If you haven't read it, I urge you to do so.

 

ODTE is an acronym for zero-days-to-expiration options. An enormous amount of volume in the options market (over 60 percent) is in these one-day option bets on the direction of the market indexes. The ODTE market, in my opinion, has been transformed from a viable hedging strategy for professionals to something more akin to gambling on a horse race or buying a lottery ticket for many retail traders. The risk is enormous and given the right circumstances could impact financial markets drastically.

 

This week, we saw the risk involved when just a few bearish ODTE contracts triggered a mad rush for the exits. An army of option day traders (40 percent of ODTE traders are retail speculators), fearing a possible market sell-off, moved to one side of the boat at the same time. That created a cascading selling event that only stopped when the day was done, OTDE options expired, and the market closed. Overnight, without the pressure of bearish ODTE contracts, futures rebounded. By Thursday's opening, those same ODTE traders scrambled into bullish options bets once again.

 

As we head into the week between Christmas and New Year, most market participants will be taking off to celebrate the holidays. As a result, trading will be light and volumes quite low, which can set the stage for unexpected, and at times, wild gyrations in the markets. The OTDE options market can exacerbate that behavior.

 

There is a part of me that hopes we do see some further pullback in the days ahead. It would relieve some of the overbought conditions in the market. That would set us up next week for a further leg higher in markets, and possibly new highs into January. 

 

I urge investors to enjoy the gains because I fear this party will be coming to an end somewhere around the middle of January. At that point, expect to batten down the hatches, but more on that forecast next week. In the meantime, happy holidays to all and to all a good week.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.