Fed Chairman Jerome Powell kicked off his speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium by admitting that the economic outlook may warrant a change in the Fed's tight money policy. That was Fed speak for it is time to cut interest rates. Markets soared on the news.

 

Economists will debate endlessly whether Powell's sudden turnaround reflects the mounting pressure by the administration on the Fed to cut interest rates or worries that unemployment may be rising. In the meantime, all the main averages were up more than 1.5 percent as I write this.

 

The assumption (more than a 90 percent chance) is that this first-interest rate cut will occur on Sept. 17, the date of the Fed's FOMC meeting. The question most are already asking is how many more cuts are in the cards between that meeting and the end of the year. The market believes two more cuts will occur. The next series of economic data points, released before their next meeting, will determine that.

 

If inflation data comes in higher than expected, then there may be only one cut in September. Readers know that I am expecting hotter inflation readings to continue through the end of the year. Powell seems to be aware of that as well. He said the risks from inflation remain "tilted to the upside." Like me, he also believes that tariff-related inflation pressures "are now clearly visible."

 

Balancing out the inflation risk, however, is the growing unemployment risk. Job risk became a factor after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that unemployment had been ticking up for the last three months. Most analysts believe that the July non-farm payrolls report will also show weakening job growth. The onset of tariffs has made the job of managing monetary policy tricky at best.

 

Suppose that is the case, why cut interest rates at all? Therein lies the rub. Ostensibly, the fear of further job losses. However, the pressure by the Trump administration to remake the Federal Reserve Bank is growing by the day. By September, if Congress votes to approve Stephen Miran, the president's chair of his Council of Economic Advisors, to the Fed, at least three members of the FOMC will be Trump appointees.

 

This week, Trump made it clear that he plans to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook if she doesn't resign. If so, and he replaces her as well, he will have four out of 12 FOMC members in his pocket. If his efforts fail, it is likely that the president, unless somehow appeased in the short run, will continue to find cause, reasons, or excuses (manufactured or otherwise) to continue his persecution of the remaining Fed members not under his control. From Powell's point of view, the political circumstances might justify a "hawkish" cut next month to alleviate the pressure. Sort of a cut in time to save nine (FOMC members).

 

Before Friday, the S&P 500 was down 2.2 percent this week, while the NASDAQ was lower by 4 percent. That was the second week in four that markets sold off only to bounce back. However, under the hood, those sectors and stocks that have driven the market's gains over the last few weeks were trashed.

 

Investors sold momentum names like Palantir, Tesla, and Nvidia. Other artificial intelligence names took it on the chin, falling by double digits. Some software stocks were down more than 20 percent. Wall Street bears have long argued that valuations in the AI space are absurd. Companies with little to offer investors beyond some mention of AI in their company name or business saw their stock price triple and quadruple in a matter of weeks.

 

Bulls say valuations don't matter. No one knows how AI power will transform the world's economies, but they believe that the AI potential must be measured in megatrillions of dollars. Given that thesis, it was a shock when Sam Altman, the CEO of ChatGPT, one of the movers and shakers behind AI, joined the fray.

 

He said this week that the billions of dollars flowing into the AI arms race risk causing a bubble comparable to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s. "Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes."

 

But Powell's comments on Friday effectively dismissed all these misgivings as investors rushed to buy the dip. Interest rate-sensitive sectors and stocks lead the charge higher. Small-cap stocks, as represented by the Russel 200 index (3.87 percent), outperformed. The dollar fell almost a whole percentage point since expectations of lower U.S. interest rates mean a lower dollar. As such, both gold (plus-1 percent) and silver (plus-2.28 percent) as well as  cryptocurrencies also chalked up some significant wins.

 

The last few weeks of mild corrective actions have now given way to higher stock prices and possibly another attempt to regain former highs. I could see the S&P 500 Index tack on another 75 points or so to 6,550-6,570. Are we out of the woods and on our way to the moon? Not yet, I see another decline once we reach my target sometime in September.  

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

The surprise revisions to the non-farm payroll data last week convinced investors that the Federal Reserve Bank will lower interest rates at its next meeting in September. Beyond that, expectations that at least two more rate cuts are in the offing sent stocks flying.

 

The promise of a potential decline in interest rates outweighed the Aug. 7 implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration. Then again, while the headlines appear to show sweeping tariffs levied on dozens of countries, with "no exemptions, no exceptions," the truth is much murkier.

 

The announcement of 100 percent tariffs on semiconductors by the White House on Wednesday came with the caveat that companies that are investing in U.S. manufacturing will be exempted. Precious few global semiconductor companies are not investing in the U.S.

 

Trump also said that India would be hit with an extra 25 percent tariff in addition to the 25 percent tariff it already faces for buying Russian oil. And yet, China, which buys more oil from Russia, gets a free pass. Brazil faces similar 50 percent tariffs, but behind the headlines, the number of exemptions on imported goods is climbing quickly. About 43 percent of Brazil's $42.3 billion exports to the U.S. have already been exempted from these tariffs.

 

A long list of products, including minerals, metals, drugs, aircraft, and food, has been exempted as well, depending on the country or company's ability to make a strong case to the administration negotiators. As such, TACO is alive and well. It is not that obvious unless one is willing to read the fine print (if there is any). 

 

It is the reason why tariffs have become yesterday's news. Investors erroneously believe that Aug. 7 marked the end of the trade war. We have seen the end of the beginning of an ongoing period of trade negotiations. We have entered a different world where the U.S. can and will implement tariffs on any country, at a moment's notice, for any reason real or imagined.

 

However, markets no longer focus on anything more than the next few months. Tariffs are out, earnings were in this week. Corporate profits were better than forecasted. At this point, with so many participants understanding the farce behind earnings beats, all that matters is guidance — what company management says they believe will happen in the next few quarters. Good guidance, good performance, it's that simple. 

 

Readers may wonder why last week's stunning reversal of the employment numbers sent stocks higher. Remember, sometimes Maine Street and Wall Street have different agendas. For those who missed it, June's non-farm payroll data and the massive revisions, which lower the number of jobs gained in the past three months, were seen as a body blow to the economy and job growth. That isn't good for Main Street. Wall Street, however, quickly realized that slower job growth was likely to force the Fed to cut interest rates and shift from its wait-and-see stance. Typically, lower interest rates equal higher stock prices. 

 

The macroeconomic data continues to support my contention that we are in an environment of mild stagflation. As I have written before, gold and other precious metals do well in that background. Usually, a declining dollar accompanies stagflation, as it has been doing so far this year. That also supports gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies. Tariffs on 100-ounce and 1-kilo bars of gold are also playing their part by pushing the price of gold higher. Importing this gold primarily from Switzerland is now subject to 39 percent tariffs.

 

In any case, the bond betting market has now penciled in at least three rate cuts this year (up from two). September's probabilities are above 90 percent. My forecast (if accurate) for a lower July Consumer Price Index reading (released on August 12) would improve those odds.

 

Last week, I advised readers that we were in the middle of a slight pullback. The tech-heavy NASDAQ fell about 4 percent. The S&P 500 declined less than that. This week, we rebounded quickly with the NASDAQ large and in charge. I expect we can move a bit higher into next week, but I doubt the selling is over. Fewer and fewer stocks are participating as we climb higher. Don't be surprised to see some higher volatility in the weeks ahead.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

The Aug. 1 tariff deadline has been pushed back again by Donald Trump, but only for a week. The latest non-farm payroll report for July was weaker, and both the May and June numbers were revised downward. Investors were not expecting that news, and stocks tumbled as a result.

 

The U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs, below the expected 104,000. It was enough to move up the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent. At the same time, May's job gains were revised downward from 144,000 to just 19,000 jobs, and June's number came in at only 14,000 job gains versus the initial report of 147,000. It is hard to believe that errors of this magnitude are unintentional.

 

The jobs data made the president's threats of even higher tariffs on numerous countries beginning Aug. 7 that much more worrisome. The week started positively on the trade front. After two days of positive negotiations between China and the U.S. in Stockholm, markets had expected that the Aug. 12 deadline for a resumption of massive tariffs would be extended. However, negotiators made it clear that the final decision would be up to President Trump, who has yet to agree to any extension.

 

A last-minute deal with South Korea produced an agreement for a 15 percent tariff plus a commitment to invest $350 billion in the U.S. Like all the other investment promises, the details and timelines for when and what remain fuzzy. Korean negotiators say that this agreement was a purely verbal understanding with nothing in writing.

 

Trump's Canada, Brazil, and India talks have still not been finalized, and the president continued to insist the Aug. 1 deadline won't be extended beyond Thursday evening. Yet, on Friday morning, the deadline has been extended again by one week. In the case of Mexico, he agreed to extend the completion of a trade deal by another 90 days.

 

As for corporate earnings this week, both Microsoft and Meta beat second-quarter earnings handily on Wednesday. They predicted a rosy future ahead for their efforts in cloud computing and AI. Meta shot up more than 11 percent as they beat earnings estimates and guidance for the year. Microsoft jumped almost 5 percent and joined Nvidia in a league of their own as both companies' market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion each. Neither Amazon nor Apple fared as well, and all these stocks gave back some of their gains on Friday.

 

By Thursday, the seven largest U.S. companies had reached a combined market value of $20 trillion. Earnings for these companies have generated nearly $600 billion and now account for 30 percent (up from 8 percent 15 years ago) of the S&P 500's combined $2 trillion in net income.

 

The seven are trading for 33.7 times current earnings and have pushed the overall price/earnings of the market to more than 27 times. The capital expenditures at Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Broadcom are consuming a significant portion of the cash they earn from operations, and Nvidia is a major beneficiary for some of that capex.

 

Overall earnings continue to beat estimates and have, until now, added fuel to the rally that seemingly never ends. Until Friday, investors have been looking past the tariff issues, expecting another TACO at the last moment. It helped that in the previous two weeks; the U.S. negotiated a framework for deals in both the European Union and Japan.

 

In addition, they have seen little evidence year to date that tariffs have had any impact on economic growth, and neither has the Fed. This week's FOMC meeting was a disappointment because the Fed is still insisting that it needs more data before deciding to cut interest rates. The jobs report for June may change that perception, at least when it comes to employment.

 

Over in the bond market, the U.S. Treasury announced it will need to raise $1 trillion in the three months to September just to keep the government running. That does not account for any of the new spending authorized by Congress in their recent tax and spending bill. Much of that fund raising will be targeted at bills and notes between a week and a year while keeping the size of its auctions of longer-dated bonds steady.

 

This is a continuation of the strategy under former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen. It is a ploy to keep long-term interest rates from shooting through the roof as Congress spends more and more. The risk is that each time that this short-term debt matures, which is at least once a year, it must be replaced by new debt issued at current interest rates. If rates were to rise, the Treasuries debt burden would rise with it.

 

I urge readers to read my recent two-part series  on fiscal dominance, "What is really behind the move to replace Jerome Powell." It will give you an understanding of why it is critical that the administration has more control over the Federal Reserve Bank.  

 

As readers know, I have been warning that stocks were overextended and in need of a timeout. We began that pullback this week. Before it is over, we could see a 4-5 percent decline in the S&P 500. I expect a few more days of volatility as investors figure out how serious Trump's new tariff deadline could be.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Markets have made significant progress since April. The announcement by the White House that Japanese tariffs would only be levied at 15 percent instead of 25 percent sent U.S. markets on a tear. Imagine if they were 10 percent.

 

"The largest deal ever made," according to the president, means that Japan will pay a 15 percent tariff to sell goods to us, while we will pay nothing to sell goods to them.

 

In reality, Americans will pay 15 percent more to buy goods from Japan, and the Japanese will pay nothing to purchase goods from us.

 

Japan exported $141.52 billion to the U.S. last year. President Trump's tariff deal will therefore cost American corporations and consumers an extra $21.22 billion annually. If you believe that Japanese exporters will pay this tax, I have some oceanfront property in Arizona that I want to sell you. The amount consumers are willing to pay versus what corporations pay will depend on the circumstances. Currently, corporations are absorbing most of the additional costs.

 

These tariffs were supposed to protect U.S. automakers, but General Motors just took a $1.1 billion hit to its second-quarter earnings from Trump's tariffs. They expect the tariff impact to worsen in the third quarter and estimate a $4 billion-$5 billion tariff loss for the year. The American Automotive Policy Council, which represents the Big Three automakers (General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis), says the agreement puts their companies at a competitive disadvantage since they face a 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum and a 25 percent tariff on parts and finished vehicles under the agreements with Canada and Mexico.

 

What sold the deal to Donald Trump was the $550 billion the Japanese have supposedly promised to invest in the U.S. Actually, it is not investment per se, but government loan agreements and guarantees to support investments. That is what Japan is offering, but the investment part of this agreement is just a policy goal, and not a legally enforceable commitment. This will also result in a larger trade deficit in the U.S. balance of payments, in case anyone cares.

 

Trump claims that the U.S. will receive 90 percent of the profits. On Friday, the Japanese disputed this, stating that the profit split will be based on contributions made by both parties. I can see where the president gets his numbers, since it will be Americans borrowing the money and making the investments, they deserve the lion's share of any profits.

 

Japan will provide the loans, acting as a banker on these infrastructure projects, and make its money on the interest charged. That is not a bad deal for Japan. It is similar to China's Belt and Road initiatives. For years, China has provided loans to indebted, emerging market economies to build global infrastructure projects. In this case, the U.S. (also a debt-ridden country) acts as the emerging market.

 

When all is said and done, if we assume that this deal will provide a blueprint for global agreements in the future, a tariff rate of 15 percent, worldwide could be the worse America may have to endure. If so, investors may have avoided the worst. They have, but it would still be a heck of an increase from the 2.4 percent rate we had in January. It will be a massive anti-growth tax bite for the economy.

 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues that the pro-growth elements of Trump's tax and deregulatory agenda will offset the damage caused by tariffs. Buried in the One Big Beautiful Bill fine print are several tax offsets to help corporations weather the hits to their profit margins. The 100 percent equipment and factory expensing, for example, helps offset some of the tariff expenses.

 

The same can be said for high-tax bracket individuals, who could see substantial extra tax benefits due to the increase in SALT tax deductions. For married joint filers, the deduction soared from $10,00 to $40,000. This allows high-income earners and business owners to deduct a larger portion of their state and local taxes ( another $30,000) from their federal taxable income. As for the rest of us, prepare for a lower standard of living.

 

Two more tariff deals were also announced: one with the Philippines and the other with Indonesia. Both countries will be saddled with 19 percent tariffs on their total exports to the U.S. of $14.5 billion. That is an additional $2.75 billion that Americans will need to absorb.

 

Second-quarter corporate earnings thus far have been good enough to "beat" Wall Street estimates. Overall, of the 164 companies ( 33 percent of the S&P 500) reporting so far, 84 percent are beating estimates. Earnings, combined with reasonable economic data, have supported stocks this week as well.

 

Markets continue to grind higher as we await news on a trade deal with the European Union and the Fed's Open Market Committee meeting at the end of next week. President Trump gives the odds of a trade deal with the EU as 50/50, and markets are betting that there will be no interest rate cuts by the Fed in July.

 

Historically, August marks the beginning of a challenging period for markets that lasts into October. Days of record highs have stretched markets to the breaking point, but most traders believe that any pullback in stocks would be 2-3 percent at most. That would barely be a blip in the scheme of things.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Watching paint dry, grass grow, or the markets' action, same, same so far this month. The S&P 500 Index is up about one percent since the beginning of July, not bad, but the big events won't happen until the end of the month.

 

It isn't as if there is no news flow. The president continues to send letters to more than 100 countries. However, few of them have any significant trade with the U.S. Trump continues to boast about tariff revenues, stating, "$113 billion was collected for the first time during the fiscal year."  Given that this money is coming out of  U.S. corporate profits, which they will then pass on to American consumers, this tariff tax is not a good thing.

 

Trump also allowed Nvidia to resume selling semiconductor chips to China (wipe on, wipe off) and, in his spare time, wants to fire (not fire) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The controversy over replacing Powell has many market participants worried. Exactly why that may be the case is the subject of my recent column, "What is really behind the move to replace Jerome Powell." I discuss Fiscal Dominance and its ramifications for markets.

 

As the capital swelters, along with the rest of the country, inside Congress, we are finishing up crypto week. Three separate bills—the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act. And the Anti-CBDC Act has been passed by the House. The Genesis Act establishing federal regulations for dollar-pegged stablecoins now goes to the Oval Office to be signed into law. The other two bills, if passed by the Senate, establish a market structure for digital assets and prevent the creation of a central bank digital currency. 

 

Passage was supposed to be a lay-up, according to the crypto community, but various Republican factions held it up for a variety of reasons. The president managed to intervene and carried the legislation over the goal line. Crypto is where most of the money was made in a slow market this week.

 

Cryptocurrencies experienced a significant price surge this week, except for Bitcoin, which remained on the sidelines after gaining 12 percent over the last month. Ethereum, on the other hand, gained 20 percent, while lesser-known coin names like Solana (+6.3 percent) and XRP (+23 percent) also participated. These cryptocurrencies, along with various companies that trade or mine digital assets, such as Coinbase (+12 percent) and Robinhood (+13 percent), outperformed most other sectors of the market.

 

Crypto bulls claimed the legislation will forever alter the perception and demand for crypto among institutional investors worldwide. Social media was full of posts predicting Bitcoin prices of $1 million or more. Ignore that. The passage of these last two bills by the Senate will be beneficial for the asset class. It will make it a safer bet for more investors. The question is whether the run-up preceding the passage of these two acts will trigger a typical "sell on the news" reaction in the cryptocurrency markets. If so, I would be a buyer of that pullback, as my Bitcoin target is $145,000.

 

On the macroeconomic front, we have seen some solid data this week. Retail sales were up 0.6 percent last month. Weekly jobless claims were lower at 221,000 applicants, while the ratio of export to import prices remained tame. As for the inflation data, the Consumer Price Index came in higher than the Street estimated, while the Producer Price Index was cooler for June. This month's CPI will show slightly weaker data but then rise again into December.

 

As I mentioned last week, Volatility Control Funds have been supporting the markets, and now attention will switch to second-quarter earnings. As readers are aware, many of these earnings announcements are meaningless. Wall Street analysts deliberately reduce their expectations for the companies they favor so corporate managements can "beat" those estimates. 

 

This system enables trading desks to book extra profits by capitalizing on FOMO chasers. Traders regularly buy company stocks before the expected results and then book their gains by selling to the retail crowd. It is always a wonder to me why investors fail to learn that chasing these so-called earnings surprises is usually a losing game. 

 

In any case, markets are extended but continue to forge ahead. Investors remain convinced that Trump's Aug. 1 tariff deadline is another mirage. If so, markets continue to rally. If not, sayonara to the stock market. The bond market remains neutral on prospects for tariffs.

 

Polymarket, the digital prediction market, places less than a 50 percent chance that any of the largest U.S. trading partners will come to a tariff agreement before Aug. 1. The highest is India (41 percent chance), while Germany has the lowest (3 percent). There may be a handful of tiny countries that could announce deals this coming week, but nothing consequential. As usual, Donald Trump holds the cards on the markets' next direction.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.