@theMarket: It's All In The Way You Say It

"I know nothing in the world that has as much power as a word."  — Emily Dickinson

The Fed ended the stock market decline this week by simply changing a sentence or two. In the space of a few hours, global markets soared, creating billions of dollars in gains for investors worldwide. Don't ever doubt the power of words.

Rumor had it that on Wednesday, the Fed was going to remove "considerable time" from its guidance on when interest rates would rise. Investors worried that thanks to the gathering strength of the economy that FOMC members were becoming hawkish and might raise rates sooner than expected. Sure enough, the Fed removed "considerable" from their statement on the time period itself, but added that the Fed would be "patient" before raising rates. That's all it took to ignite a truly breath-taking rally in stocks.

"But, but, what about Russia and the slide in oil," sputtered a California client who was sure that the declining oil price was going to be the end of us all.

"The oil price," as Janet Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, said Thursday," is a transitory event."

For longer-term investors (anyone with more than a week's time horizon in this market) the decline in oil will at some point be over. Prices will rise once again as the world economies grow and demand more energy to fuel that growth.  I wrote last week that in the meantime, lower oil prices are great for our economy and all other oil-consuming nations. Japan, if you are interested, stands out as the greatest beneficiary of declining oil prices.

Until Wednesday's Fed meeting however, traders were using the oil price as an excuse to sell off the equity markets. That short-term maneuver only works until it doesn't. The Fed meeting blew that trade right out of the water and traders, happy to be short stocks, suddenly found themselves up a certain creek without a paddle. Since then short-covering has been the name of the game. And by the way, the oil price is still sliding, despite a 500-plus point move in the Dow over the last two days.

As for all the consternation concerning Russia, investors who read last week's column "Is the Russian bear back in its cave?" were not surprised at the ruble's decline this week, nor the spike in Russian interest rates to 17 percent. I have also noticed that several publications are coming around to my view that the oil price decline could have been engineered by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in order to bring Putin to his knees, at least economically.

Given the action of the markets over the past two days, I would guess that we have put in a bottom for 2014. Next week traditionally has been a good one for the markets and I don't see any evidence that this year will be different. The bears could try once again to establish a link between a declining oil price and the stock market, but usually stocks only discount a maneuver like that once.

For me, I would buy any further dips in the market. This one amounted to about 5.4 percent, which is within the range of most of the pull-backs we have experienced so far this year.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

@theMarket: It's All About Oil

Just three weeks to go before the end of the year, and stock markets should be celebrating. Instead, equity markets have been down as traders become increasingly spooked by the decline in oil prices. Granted, financial markets sometimes get it wrong, but the present atmosphere of fear is one for the books.

Investors are afraid that oil prices could go even lower. The question to ask is how low is too low? Someone somewhere came up with the price of $60 a barrel as a "fair" price for oil. This week it broke that price level and markets in Europe and the U.S. sold off. What are investors thinking?

For starters, some believe the decline in oil prices is indicative of slowing world demand for energy. If true, then maybe the global economy is growing even slower than investors thought. In which case, stocks are too high, despite all the central bank stimulus.

Then there are the oil patch companies themselves. We all know the big-name global players that pay good dividends and are (were) considered salt of the earth investments. Some of these names are down 20-30 percent so far this year. Then, too, there are the drillers and junior drillers, those high-flyers that led the fracking and oil shale boom. Those stocks are getting decimated.

The hurting that these companies are experiencing right now also brings into question the health of their finances, specifically the money borrowed from banks to fund their exploration and development.  Extrapolating from the oil price, the logic becomes: oil down, stocks down (due to worries over company solvency), which then spills over to what banks could or could not be in trouble due to energy loans. And so it goes.

What readers should immediately notice is that, with the exception of a declining oil price, none of the above has happened and there is less than a slight chance that it will. Why?

Energy's share of the business sector of GDP in the U.S. is 5.9 percent. Not much, and certainly not enough to take GDP down with it. Especially when consumer spending is 67 percent of GDP and declining oil boosts that kind of spending.

In the stock market, energy has less than a 10 percent weighting in the S&P 500 Index. Right now the sector is taking the entire index down with it, but the numbers tell you that it is an over-reaction. What about those big mega-cap companies with solid dividends? Exxon's CEO said his company would be okay with $40 oil. As for the supply/demand equation, I believe the new technology-driven increase in the supply of various forms of energy, especially in the U.S., is what is driving the price of oil lower, not decreasing demand.

I'm not disputing that if energy prices continue to slide, and they could, that some companies in that sector, especially the small aggressive kind, will have financial trouble. But that has been true since wildcatters have been wildcatters. It doesn't mean that the whole market should be carried down with them.

If we step back and look at the markets from a dispassionate point of view, we simply see that from the October sell-off, stocks have gone straight up with hardly a pause. What we are seeing today is simply a much-needed pull back from the highs. In my opinion, this decline has pretty much run its course.

Over time, the benefits of cheaper oil worldwide will have a beneficial impact on all energy-consuming companies and their financial markets. Wall Street would like to see those benefits show up immediately, but that is not the way of the world. It takes time to derive the benefits of this kind of price decline and it won't happen overnight. For those with a longer term view, this decline is a great opportunity.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

@theMarket: Markets Are in Half Time

Stocks have had a wonderful run since mid-October's swoon. The S&P 500 Index is now up over 10 percent from its bottom. As we approach another record high, expect some backing and filling before moving higher. I wish I could say the same about the price of oil.

The price of oil is the main topic of conversation among traders and investors. Typically, as the price declines further, Wall Street energy bears vie for headlines by predicting even worse times ahead for energy. Technicians are now considering $40 a barrel as a real possibility and others are jumping on the band wagon as oil broke $75 a barrel on the downside this week.

Methinks the selling is overdone at least over the short-term. We are only a week away from the OPEC meeting and I expect some traders will cover their shorts until after the meeting. What we do know is that Saudi Arabia needs $85 barrel oil to balance their budget. But that Middle East nation is both wealthy and autocratic. It can afford to watch oil drop lower if they choose to. Besides, there may be other reasons in the wind for allowing oil to slide lower.

Excuse my penchant for Machiavellian plots, but it has occurred to me that the nation that is hurting the most from this price decline is Mother Russia. Globally, Russia is the No. 1 producer, followed by Saudi Arabia, while the U.S., at 9 million barrels a day in production, ranks third.  

Readers may have noticed that now that the weather has grown colder, surprise, surprise, events are heating up once again in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, in my opinion, plans to annex even more territory in the east of that nation. If Europe protests or threatens to increase economic sanctions as a result, Putin could threaten both Ukraine and/or Europe with a cutback or even a cessation of energy exports. He has done it before and there is no reason to believe he won't do it again.

If I know that then surely others do as well. If I were the U.S. (and its ally, Saudi Arabia), lower oil prices would be a far more effective tool to slow or even stymie Putin's land-grabbing schemes than sanctions. At the same time it would give a real shot in the arm to American consumers, airlines, farmers, shippers and the transportation sector.

At some point, declining oil prices, coupled with the existing economic sanctions, could truly devastate the Russian economy and bring Russia to its knees. Right now, the Russian people love Putin and his misguided efforts to restore the Soviet empire. Will that adoration persist in the face of a deep recession or even a depression?

We blame Saudi Arabia for not acting to support energy prices. Pundits (including me) have claimed that it is their intent to slow U.S. shale and gas production, thereby hurting America's efforts in becoming energy-independent. Maybe so, but at the same time, it is hurting Russia far more than the U.S. and that's my point.

As for the markets, this last week has been largely a period of consolidation or sideways movement. Markets are overbought and need to work off the excesses, which is exactly what is happening. Remember, markets can adjust by either declining or sideways movement. All year long, we have seen a pattern of sideways rather than down so expect more of the same. Stay invested and enjoy the coming rally into the New Year.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

@theMarket: All Clear

If investors needed proof that the market's bottom is in, this week provided it. It was the best week of the year in stock market gains and it looks like we have more on the way.

That's not to say we couldn't have another pullback, but it won't be to the levels we saw nine days ago. The S&P 500's 200 DMA is around 1.905. That would be the logical limit to a decline if traders wanted to do a little profit-taking, but I don't see much downside beyond that.

One catalyst that is providing support for the market is another good earnings season. Although there have been a few spectacular misses by some big technology companies, by and large, companies have beat earnings estimates and provided positive guidance for the months ahead.

Negatives do remain. ISIS is not going anywhere soon and Ebola will continue to rear its ugly head as it did this week when a Manhattan physician contracted the disease. One can only wonder why a medical doctor, who had been working with infected patients in Africa, would "self-diagnose" rather than getting checked out immediately upon returning to the U.S.

But markets rarely discount an event more than once. So far we have had several potential Ebola cases in this country and the markets have already discounted the possibilities. In order for investors to really sell-off the markets, something new and far more serious must occur.

The same goes for ISIS. Yes, the terrorists have proven to be far more resilient and tough-minded, despite bombing runs by the U.S. and its allies. However, the opposition seems to have at least slowed their advance, which is enough for the markets.

As for the worry-mongers who follow the Fed, forget about them. In my opinion, the Federal Reserve Bank will overstay its welcome when it comes to keeping interest rates low until they are convinced that the labor market has truly recovered. And that brings us to the mid-term elections, which are less than two weeks away.

Most pollsters believe that the GOP will sweep both houses of Congress. All Republicans need to do, according to the consensus, is to continue slamming an already-unpopular president and stay away from the issues. As such, the stock market is going to celebrate their win by gaining ground. For whatever reason, markets initially go up when Republicans win elections, even though the historical data indicate that markets always do better under the Democratic Party.

Once elected, the GOP has two years to do something on the legislative front in order to carry the 2016 presidential elections. They cannot afford to do nothing and blame the Democrats, as they have done for the last eight years - if they want to win. So what can we expect?

At the very least, we should expect some kind of fiscal stimulus plan that will pick up where the Fed left off. Infrastructure spending, something this country desperately needs, in tandem with corporate tax cuts (always popular with their corporate supporters) might be a way of growing the economy and further reducing unemployment.

Most politicos would say that the Democrats would never go along with that and if they did, the president would veto any GOP-authored fiscal stimulus plan as a matter of course. I'm not so sure. As an unpopular, lame-duck president, Obama might consider a Republican-controlled Congress as an opportunity to save the reputation of his presidency. If he were to usher in a new era of compromise, even if that compromise were all his own, would he do it? We shall see but in the meantime, stay invested.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

@theMarket: So far, So Good

This week's behavior in the stock market went according to plan. We broke through several technical supports, reached a fairly critical level, and then bounced back. However, October isn't over and the probability that we experience more downside remains high. Here's my take on the week ahead.

Readers who read my column last week were prepared for the S&P 500 Index to break its 200-day moving average at 1,905. I expected prices to overshoot on the downside and they did The S&P 500 Index dropped further to an intraday low of 1,820 on Tuesday. That was thirty points lower than my best guess. But before the end of the day on Wednesday, the markets rebounded to close above my 1,850 target level. On Thursday, sellers tried again, but could only push the average down to 1,835 before rebounding once again. The Index ended the day at just about the same level of 1,862.

I advised readers last week that I expect the S&P 500 to continue this consolidation process, moving slightly above and then below that 200 DMA in the days ahead. So far things are going according to plan

So, what does that say about the markets and this correction?  It says to me that this decline, although much-needed, is not about anything fundamental. Sure, Europe is struggling and Ebola cases are springing up in the United States but those are simply weak excuses for a market that simply needed a correction and now we have it.

Lesson 1: do not panic.
Lesson 2: do not sell.
Lesson 3: buy when the blood is running in the streets, and we had some of that on Wednesday and Thursday. How can I tell?

One of my best indications came when I tried to log on to one of my brokerage accounts on Wednesday morning.  The market opened down 40 points on the S&P and over 300 points on the Dow. I could not get quotes on the site and the online trading response was extremely sluggish. That usually happens when the number of people trying to sell stocks overwhelms the system. That told me there was panic in the air, which is a great time to buy stocks — so I did. The same thing happened the next day as the markets hit lows for the day once again. So I went shopping. Remember, I'm the kind of guy that buys straw hats in the winter and snow blowers in the summer.

I also look for 90 percent down days when investors overwhelmingly rush for the exits. We had those too this week. I recognize that most investors find it difficult to buy when the markets are falling. It is a scary thing to do, but it almost always pays off.

As the headline says, "so far so good" but now what?

I suspect we need to re-test the lows just to be sure they will hold. That means we could get back down to the 1,820 level or maybe 1,800, since it is a round number and prices seem to gravitate to those marker buoys. Could we break 1,800? Of course we could, but only by 20 or 30 points and even then it would probably happen on an intraday basis like the lows of this week.

Friday's rebound was a good sign. But the fact that investors were hoping the Fed will come to our rescue simply because we had a down week in the market is ludicrous. Listen people, you can't continue to make gains in equities if you don't have pull backs like this. The S&P 500 has only lost almost 10 percent from the highs before rebounding on Friday. That's the way things are supposed to happen. We haven't had a 10 percent pullback since 2011.  It is great news if you care about the stock market in the months and years to come. This kind of sell-off clears the decks for further gains ahead.

There are some real values out there. Airline stocks have been pummeled because of the Ebola crisis. Panicked investors have dumped them en masse assuming that the entire industry will be shut down and no one will fly ever again. Poppycock! Oil companies have been trounced because bears are saying that global demand for oil is so weak and the dollar so strong that 30% declines in those stocks are justified. Are you kidding me?

There is no way I can guarantee you that my scenario will turn out as I expect. Remember, this is an art, not a science, but so far, so good. Take my advice, this too shall pass and there are good things right around the corner. Next week I'll discuss some of those good things and what I expect after mid-term elections, so stay tuned.  

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.