Strong growth in the economy in the last quarter of 2023 helped support equity markets this week. The U.S. economy grew 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, which was much higher than the estimates of 2.2 percent growth. For last year overall, the economy grew 2.5 percent.

 

At the same time the core personal consumption expenditure price index, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.9 down from 3.2 percent from the prior month, and moved below 3 percent for the first time since March 2021. Investors liked those numbers enough to keep the S&P 500 Index making new highs.

 

Technology continued to lead stocks higher. The Magnificent Seven (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) garnered the lion's share of buying. Tesla, however was the downside exception. This has been the trend for most of last year and continues to be the case so far in 2024. Six of the seven accounted for 80 percent of the SPX gains in January, Nvidia and Microsoft alone represented almost 50 percent of that move.

 

The problem with this action is that with only a few stocks pushing the averages higher, I question the underlying health of the markets overall.

 

Under the market's hood, rotation into one sector and out of others for a day or two says to me that most of the market is going nowhere. The bears argue that this kind of action can't continue much longer. My answer to that is the Mag Seven carried the market for most of last year and continue to do so at least into February.

 

That does not mean I would rush in to buy more of these big-cap tech stocks. They are "holds," right now. Most investors already own these seven stocks in their portfolios anyway. In addition, they are top holdings in hundreds of exchange-traded funds and mutual funds. As such, they represent a huge portion of U.S. investments. The entire market capitalization of the small-cap, Russell 2000 Index, for example, is less than the market value of Apple or Microsoft. These large-cap, liquid stocks are supporting the markets.

 

There have been times in the past, for example, in the latter half of 2022, when these darlings were out of favor. When they are, this usually leads to a sell-off in the overall market. Could this happen again? It certainly can.

 

Take Tesla as an example. For years, this electric vehicle pioneer could do no wrong. But sentiment has changed. The mounting competition of dozens of EV manufacturers entering the market is reducing prices and causing profits to decline. Recently, one Chinese company, BYD, has dethroned Tesla as the leading EV company in the world. Tesla's stock price has plummeted in recent weeks and earnings were disappointing.

 

Most of the Mag Seven companies will be reporting earnings in the coming week or two. Thus far, fourth-quarter earnings have been pretty good. About 25 percent of the S&P 500 Index have reported. Overall, 70 percent are beating estimates by about 7 percent. Given how high these individual stock prices have been bid up, most are priced for perfection. Netflix earnings did surprise to the upset, while Tesla did the opposite. The Bulls are hoping the remaining five surpass expectations.

 

Next week, we will also be treated to another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Investors expect the Fed to hold the line on interest rates. No rate cuts or hikes are expected. Possibly even more important than the Fed will be the U.S. Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement on Jan. 31. The more long-term Treasury bonds the government plans to sell at upcoming auctions, the more pressure there will be on bond yields to rise. That will have consequences for the equity markets.

 

We are still in that last move up that I had been forecasting. And it is not over yet. How much higher could we go? The S&P 500 could climb 100-200 points higher to 5,000-5,100. My timing for this market's short-term top was off a bit. I was expecting that we would have already hit the top by now. However, it still looks like a pullback in February into March before moving higher sometime in the spring. 

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

The stock market has been a chop fest over the last two weeks. Yet, that has not stopped the technology sector from making new highs and the S&P 500 Index is not far behind. Are there more gains ahead for the averages before the end of the month?

 

Yes, as I wrote last week, I think there is at least one more good bounce in the markets before all is said and done. After that, I suspect we will all have to pay the piper for a while.

 

Has anything changed in investors' thinking to warrant these erratic moves? Much of the volatility over the last two weeks can be explained by the rise in bond yields and the strength in the dollar. Both instruments have made an abrupt turnaround from their downward trends that supported equities since October 2023.

 

I can identify two major concerns weighing on markets. The direction of inflation, and whether the U.S. economy is heading for a hard or soft landing. Neither of these outcomes will be known for several months. Until investors have a definitive answer, I believe markets will make little progress from here.

 

From all I have read and heard, not even the Fed knows if they have inflation licked. Sure, we have made progress towards a 2 percent inflation goal, but are still 2 percent above that rate. I can commiserate with the Fed’s position every time I go food shopping.

 

As for the economy, we are still seeing strength, and while economists continue to predict a softening of growth, it has not shown up in the data. The bears believe growth will fall off a cliff in one of these quarters and unemployment will spike at the same time. The Bulls say it won't happen. They believe that the economy and employment will maintain its present course upward and, at worst, we may have a soft landing if they are wrong.

 

Few are talking about a middle course, stagflation. That is where inflation remains sticky or strengthens a bit, while the economy slows at the same time. That could happen, if inflation remains stuck, and the Fed simply maintains tight monetary policy as a result. The longer they do that, the harder the landing for the economy will be.

 

But wait, you may ask, what happened to the bond market's conviction that the Fed will begin cutting rates in March and then five more times before the end of the year? The last two weeks have seen the chance for a March cut dropping from 90 percent to about even now. The number of expected cuts is also dwindling.

 

What if the economy does begin to slow? In an election year, any guess on what the Biden Administration might do? In an extremely tight race where the economy is a central issue, a healthy dose of increased fiscal spending would be no surprise. That has happened many times in the past.

 

 In case you don't know, most of the growth in the economy over the last few months has been the result of government spending and not the private sector. There are still billions of dollars that are part of the Inflation Reduction Act that have yet to be spent. Believe me, that is no accident. It is one of the main reasons why the Republican House, in my opinion, has been so adamant about cutting fiscal spending now.

 

So where does all of this leave the stock markets? In the short-term, as I predicted we are in bounce mode until the end of the year. That would require both yields and the dollar to behave. If I were a short-term trader I would sell into that bounce. Profit-taking after the gains of the last three months would be a no-brainer.

 

I maintain my belief that sometime in the weeks ahead, probably February at this point, stocks will face a stiff pullback of 6-7 percent, possibly more. This consolidation period will linger through April and into May.  At that point, I could see a spring-into-summer rally that would recoup those losses if the Fed does cut interest rates, the election draws closer, and we have a better understanding of where the economy and employment are going.  

 

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January is turning out to be a roller coaster of ups and downs for investors. Last year's fourth-quarter gains have reversed somewhat, and the future is becoming murkier as the day progresses. Hold on to your seatbelts.

 

The economic data is certainly not cooperating with the bull's scenario of slowing job growth, a fast decline in inflation, and a continued decline in bond yields. The reverse has happened. The benchmark Ten-Year Treasury bond has risen back above 4 percent. The dollar has strengthened, the week's jobless number declined, and the Consumer Price Index for December came in slightly hotter than economists were expecting. On the other hand, the December Producer Price Index was a tad cooler.

 

As such, the wildly bullish expectations that the Fed will begin to cut interest rates as early as March, and continue cutting all year, is going the way of the dodo bird. That disappointment has soured the mood and investor sentiment is beginning to turn less positive. That is probably a good sign if you are a contrarian.

 

The geopolitical scene has also failed to inspire confidence. The Houthi rebels have been stepping up their game in the Red Sea. The U.S. and its allies are responding with naval and air strikes in Yemen. This could further embroil the U.S. in the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

 

The Ukraine/Russian conflict does not help. It seems to be stuck in a stalemate. Oil and gas prices are rising because of all this turmoil. As is precious metals. Supply chain issues are also causing pressure on prices and that hurts expectations for further declines in inflation.

 

Washington has still not figured out a way to keep the government from shutting down. The Republican-controlled House continues to shoot itself in the foot time after time. The 118th Congress is one of the most unproductive in modern history. Their members have been paired down to a razor-thin majority. Legislation has ground to a halt. At best, it appears that the most we can hope for is another continuing resolution that solves nothing and continues to leave the country hostage to a tiny, group of politicians.

 

This week, the long-awaited Securities Exchange Commission approval of 11 issuers that applied for bitcoin exchange-traded-funds (ETF) finally occurred. It looked like a classic sell-on-the-news event. After an initial pop, bitcoin lost almost 4 percent on Thursday before rebounding by the end of the day.

 

Interest seems high but the jury is still out on whether investors will embrace these ETFs with open arms. I think it will take a few weeks before things shake out. The good news for investors is there is a race to the bottom as far as fees charged for these ETFs are concerned.

 

It is the beginning of earnings season with the multicenter banks kicking off results on Friday. Investors will be focusing attention on overall results to see if the present stock market valuations are justified or not. Prepare for company misses to be penalized heavily, while beats may not be rewarded all that much given the run-up in many stocks over the last few months. Corporate guidance for future sales and earnings will be key.

 

Beginning next Wednesday, global money flows into financial markets, which have supported markets for weeks, will begin to taper off. This will have a negative impact on prices overall, regardless of asset class. Short term, I expect the markets will remain volatile with maybe one more bounce before some serious downside begins over the next few weeks.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Investors were greeted with a brutal bout of selling as 2024 unfolded this week. The stocks that had gained the most last year were obvious targets. Is this the end of the rally or is this simply a minor bump in the road?

 

The Santa Rally reversed, and the Grinch stomped on investors' hopes for further gains. The NASDAQ led stocks lower with the Magnificent Seven taking it on the chin. For those who believe in the idea that the first five trading days of January forecast the direction of the market for January and for the year overall, the market’s performance does not fill one with confidence.

 

It is nail-biting time for the bulls. The first three trading days of the year were negative. That has happened 12 times since 1950. Only three times has the market managed to turn positive by day 5. To me, the jury is out until the market closes on Jan. 8.    

 

As for the disappointment that Santa did not come to Wall Street this year, let's look at history. Over the last 80 years, there have been 15 times where we have had negative results over the last five days of December and the first two days of the following January. Out of those 15 times, the market managed to deliver positive returns 10 times with a median return of 3 percent.

 

From a technical point of view, the sell-off did not even dent the bullish cast of the markets. As I have written over the last few weeks, the markets were overheated and each day we gained that condition worsened. The good news is that the selling has relieved that overbought condition without seriously impacting the upward momentum of the markets.

 

Even as the markets declined, some of the areas that lagged the markets during 2023 moved higher. The health-care sector, for example, saw some great gains, as did energy stocks and utilities. Those areas underperformed the markets drastically last year.

 

While most readers are focused on stocks, the main drivers of the last two months' gains have been the steep decline in bond yields and the declining dollar. Both areas have reversed this week with the benchmark Ten-Year U.S. Treasury bond seeing its yield break above 4 percent this week on the upside. And as we know, bond yields up usually mean stocks are down. Assets that are on the other side of the dollar (precious metals, materials, crypto, emerging markets) were hurt as well.

 

I am sure one of the reasons this occurred was a reverse in sentiment by bond traders. The betting on future interest rate cuts in 2024 had gotten out of hand, in my opinion. Some were betting up to six rate cuts in the year beginning in March. That to me was a case of irrational exuberance. Just because the Fed may have finished raising interest rates does not automatically mean the central bank will start cutting rates. In other words, the Fed's "higher for longer" is still the name of the game.

 

The economic news certainly did not support the need for the Fed to cut interest rates anytime soon. The economy is growing. Unemployment is not rising. Instead, the jobs market, per Friday's non-farm payrolls, surprised economists on the upside. The economy added 216,000 jobs, which was a big beat compared to the forecasts of 175,000 jobs.

 

On a different subject, the U.S. government was also responsible for some big price movements in two sectors this week:  crypto and pot stocks. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has until Jan. 10 to rule on a proposal by Ark Invest and 21Shares. Both firms are applying to issue a bitcoin spot currency exchange-traded fund.  Many other big brokers and asset managers such as Fidelity, Invesco, BlackRock, Van Eck, Wisdomtree, and more have done the same.

 

The SEC could reject the proposed application outright, delay it, or approve it. It looks to be a binary event that should send Bitcoin substantially higher (or lower) depending on the outcome. The betting ranges from 90 percent approval to zero chance.

 

On Wednesday, an October 2023 letter from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to a member of Congress, was revealed. It made clear that the agency had "the final authority to schedule, reschedule, or deschedule" drugs under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA). The DEA also told lawmakers it is "now conducting its review" of whether to soften federal regulation of marijuana under the CSA. The news instantly sent marijuana stocks higher.

 

Last year, I wrote that the Department of Health and Human Services had asked the DEA to review marijuana's Schedule 1 status and to reduce it to a Schedule III substance. That request triggered a huge run in the sector. This was largely due to the differential in federal taxes that would occur if the DEA granted marijuana Schedule III status. The industry would immediately experience a large decline in taxes leading to a big jump in profitability.

 

At the time, Industry experts believed that the DEA review would only happen in the second half of the year and closer to the elections. I advised readers not to chase the stocks, but rather wait until investor attentions were focused elsewhere. That happened. Hopefully, you were able to pick up some stocks or an ETF on the cheap.  

 

Fortunately, some of that fluff has now come out of the markets, which to me is a positive development. I think we now have a chance to see new highs over the next week or two. However, that does not mean that we are up, up, and away into the rest of the first quarter. I am still expecting a more savage decline sometime soon that could begin as early as late January, or early February.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

As we close out 2023, stocks continue to inch higher. The traditional rally encompassing the last five days after Christmas into the first two days of the New Year is on track. Next week, trading should resume and with it a possible new high in the markets. 

 

Low volume, empty desks, and a focus on buying up the laggards of 2023 describe the week's trading action. Macroeconomic news was scarce. In that vacuum, stocks were at the mercy of proprietary traders and the ODTE speculators. The financial media kept investors busy by publishing a forest full of 2024 forecasts by brokers and money managers.

 

Overall, the 2024 S&P 500 Index targets range from 4,200 to 5,500. Given that over a long period, the S&P 500 has delivered around 10.13 percent yearly returns since 1957, and 9.19 percent over the last 150 years. As such, forecasts that mimic those returns should be ignored.

 

Those forecasts say to me that the authors have no idea where the market is going. As such, they have just taken the historical average gain as their forecast. Very few are bearish for 2024.

 

The current consensus is that the Fed will cut interest rates at least three times next year. Inflation is not coming back, and the U.S. will escape a recession. Interest rates will remain lower, but yields may bounce back up for a short time. The U.S. dollar will also continue to decline.

 

I am usually not one that agrees with consensus forecasts. I am also going to refrain from forecasting where the S&P 500 will end up 12 months from now. There are just too many factors that can change my outlook along the way. So instead, I will focus on the risks and rewards I see for the markets.

 

While I do think the markets will be higher than they are now by the end of next year, there will be some substantial pullbacks along the way. In January, for example, we could see a blow-off top that could see the S&P 500 index reach 4,900-5,000. That is the good news.

 

However, I am looking for a pullback after that. We could see a big bout of profit-taking beginning in the second half of January or early in February.

 

This consolidation should continue into April. Worries of slowing macroeconomic growth and falling employment will dampen investors' enthusiasm for stocks. This will be punctuated by doubts and uncertainty about whether the Fed will cut rates or simply continue to pause. In summary, the first half of 2024 will be volatile and trend to the downside.

 

There may be some areas that could withstand this malaise. I think that precious metals may be one of them. Europe may turn the economic corner providing some global growth. China could come back as well, in which case, materials might also do well. Overall, however, the first half is going to be bumpy.

 

In the second half, we face the 2024 elections. I expect the present administration, like every other administration, will pull out all the stops to goose the markets and the economy before the November elections.

 

Between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank, I would expect to see a loosening of monetary policy and lower interest rates by April. This should ease financial conditions. If so, economic growth should rise, as will corporate profits and productivity. Inflation might remain sticky as a result but still trend downward below 3 percent, but still not reach the Fed's 2 percent target.

 

I do not expect another year of stellar performance by the Magnificent Seven. They will gain in price for sure, but I would expect the other 493 stocks of the S&P 500 to do better as will small-cap stocks, industrials, financials, and biotech.

 

That's it in a nutshell. I caution that my forecasts can change (and probably will) based on unforeseen circumstances. I wish you a wonderful 2024. Happy New Year.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.