One of the main complaints of market watchers has been the narrow breadth of the stock market. Few areas, besides the handful of tech stocks, have participated in the bull market this year. That has changed.

 

Biotech, crypto, financials, industrials, and even the staid healthcare sector have come to life this week. The Russell 2000 small-cap index outperformed as well. In the meantime, the Mag 7 and AI 5 marked time.

 

As I warned readers last week, I thought stocks were due for a little consolidation as traders took profits on some of the large gains accrued over the last two months. The fact that large-cap tech sold off and the markets barely budged was meaningful to me. It is an indication that there was a lot of non-tech buying under the hood of the averages.

 

The value of any one of three of the Mag 7 stocks (Microsoft, Apple, or Nvidia) is equal to the entire market capitalization of the small-cap, Russel 2000 Index. If all three were sold down at the same time (even a little), there needs to be an awful lot of buying in other areas just to keep the major averages afloat. That is what happened.

 

This week's most important data point was the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), which is the Federal Reserve Bank's key inflation indicator. The PCE increased 0.3 percent month-over-month in January 2024. That was in line with market expectations. Prices for services went up 0.6 percent while goods decreased 0.2 percent. The monthly core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, edged up 0.4 percent.

 

All those data points came in as expected, and traders used that as an excuse to boost the market. However, nothing in the report would convince the Fed to cut interest rates in March at their next FOMC meeting on March 15-16, in my opinion. It may have been the smallest annual rise in inflation we've seen in three years, but it was still a rise. If anything, it justifies the Fed’s decision to wait until they see further headway on inflation before considering an interest rate cut.

 

The real star of the week was Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency breached $60,000 for the first time since November 2021 and came close to $64,000 before giving back some of its gains. Bitcoin is up more than 42 percent since the Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot exchange-traded funds back in January 2024.

 

With the move higher, Bitcoin has reclaimed its trillion-dollar status. But it has yet to top its all-time high made in November 2021. At that time, the coin surpassed $68,000 briefly as many panicky traders turned to the digital asset during the pandemic fears.

 

However, this week, it did hit an all-time high in 14 different countries with weaker currencies than the U.S. dollar. Some of the crypto bulls I follow predict we will break above the old high (after a pullback) and could see as high as $100,000 by the end of the year. I don't see why not.

 

We are at that stage in the markets where we could see an end to this bull run at any time. It could be today, two weeks from now, or ... The problem with that forecast is that everyone is saying the same thing. And what do the markets usually do in that situation — what is most inconvenient for the greatest number of people? In this case — up.

 

Last week we came close to my S&P 500 Index target of 5,140. Since then, we have traded down slightly, but momentum traders simply moved from buying tech to bidding up other sectors of the market. It is the financial equivalent of a game of moving chairs.

 

March is upon us, and it looks to me like we still have a little gas left in the tank. The charts say we can still go higher. Most technicians see this week's mild consolidation as no biggy. Yes, the markets are extended and overbought, but could get more so. Margin debt, which is a good indicator of speculation, stands at $702 billion as of the end of January. That is a lot of gambling money, but it is still lower than it was at the beginning of the two previous selloffs ($936 billion in October 2021, and $710 billion in July 2023). 

 

As I have written in the last few weeks we are no longer in the land of fundamentals. The markets are being driven by money flows. Momentum rules the day and as such, we could just as easily see 5,200 as we could see 4,800 on the S&P 500. I say enjoy the ride while it lasts and when we pull back buy the dip.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

At this point, few would question the economic impact that Taylor Swift has had on the world. The sheer level of spending the singer has triggered among consumers is breathtaking. The ripple effect of her business affairs has produced unexpected profits for many corporations and even countries worldwide. No wonder she is the only person from the world of entertainment to ever be on the cover of Time magazine.

 

In my day, Michael Jackson was the pop star who took the world by storm. The "gloved one" was the record breaker in the music and entertainment business every week. He made millions for himself and others. But Taylor Swift, the "anti-hero" singer who has captured the minds and hearts of millions, has largely eclipsed Michael Jackson's rise.

 

She toppled Jackson's AMA awards record at the American Music Awards recently while her Grammy awards have also broken records. Taylor's worldwide Eras Tour has garnered more than $1.04 billion which is the first tour in history to top the billion-dollar mark. She pulled in an additional $261.6 million worldwide from her movie, "The Eras Tour," thus far. That box office success also surpassed Jackson's total global take of $261.2 million for "This Is It" back in 2009. "Eras" is the highest-grossing concert or performance film of all time, recognized by the 2023 Guinness World Records.

 

However, the global impact of Swift has far transcended her economic successes. The level of spending, sales, engagement, viewership, and business synergy continues to reach new heights. Her work is benefiting countless industries, companies, and even regions throughout the world. Hotel chains, restaurants, clothing companies, transportation services, theatres, and even tourism have received substantial boosts from her endeavors. 

 

Swift has boosted business in far-off places such as Singapore where her concert has attracted thousands of fans from all over Southeast Asia. In Japan, her appearances are expected to generate more than $230 million, which would make it the country's biggest-ever musical event in terms of economic impact. Mexico saw a big jump in tourism as well during the concerts she gave last August.

 

Here at home, Swift has already generated $4.6 billion in consumer spending at last count and is expected to exceed $5 billion before the end of the year. Ticketing companies saw their stocks rise as her stadium appearances around the country produced more than $554 million in sales. Her concerts in Chicago spiked the hotel occupancy rate in Illinois with 44,000 rooms sold. Another record in her trail of records.

 

Probably the most popular episode in Swift's super-charged life is her romance with Kansas City Chiefs' tight end Travis Kelce. Their relationship blossomed as the NFL played in the background. Her appearance at games is credited with a 53 percent increase in viewership of girls between the ages of 12 and 17. That was most remarkable given the total amount of her available screen time during the Chiefs' games was a mere 0.46 percent. Kelce's jersey sales spiked 400 percent overnight. Fast forward to the Super Bowl.

 

Thanks to Swift's participation, brand awareness received by the Superbowl was almost 10 times the exposure an advertiser received in a 30-second commercial. That was worth about $9,500,000 in free advertising for the game. At the same time, this year's Super Bowl viewership increased to 123.4 million viewers versus 115.1 million last year. But among women ages 18 to 24 viewership increased 24 percent from last year, according to Sports Media Watch.

 

Swiftonomics is the word most often used to describe the global impact of Taylor Swift. It is a phenomenon that is so novel that a University of Kansas professor has recently created a curriculum called "Swiftynomics 101" to study the economics of the 34-year-old pop star's effect on the NFL.

 

The media would have you believe that everything Taylor touches turns to gold. That may be true, but it is not luck or accident that makes it so. Yes, her bank account now totals more than $1.1 billion by most estimates. But she has earned every dime of it.

 

She has written and sung 250 songs, and 10 albums beginning at the ripe age of 16. It may be the reason she has almost 500 million followers on social media. Her Eras tour consisted of 66 concerts in 20 U.S. cities and four cities in Latin America. There are still another 85 concerts left to do. She sings 44 songs per concert no matter whether she is "sick, injured, heartbroken, uncomfortable or stressed," according to her Time interview. To say she works her tail off would be an understatement. Bloomberg estimates she pockets $13 million every night.

 

For millions of children and adults, it would be hard to imagine a better role model than Taylor Swift. As for her economic acumen, the Kansas teacher is on target. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Harvard or MIT has a case study or two for their next semester with Swift in mind.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Stocks forged ahead this week, making new highs with technology stocks continuing to take the lead. Financial flows into equity buoyed the overall market despite some disappointing results in the U.S. government's Treasury auctions. 

 

Credit for the continued move higher must go to the number one AI stock in the world, Nvidia.

 

It was touch and go on Wednesday night as all eyes waited for Nvidia's earnings results. The Street was divided on which way the markets would go. It depended on whether this leading semiconductor company could beat estimates once again and deliver higher forward guidance on the world's demand for its artificial intelligence chips.

 

Both the Mag 7 and the AI 5 stocks spent the beginning of the week falling in fear that Nvidia results could not possibly top the results of the last two quarters. Strategists were warning that the entire market was at risk since the AI boom has been the main driver of the market's advance for more than a year. 

 

 The company's corporate earnings and sales not only fulfilled the hopes of the biggest bulls but super charged the price of every stock that was even remotely involved in the AI boom.   Nvidia hit a new high for the year on Thursday and Friday while triggering an almost 3 percent gain on the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 Index added close to 2 percent, although the Dow and the Russell 2000 small cap index did add far less.

 

And while stocks rallied, bonds did the opposite. The U.S. Treasury's 10-year bond yield has been climbing higher, reaching 4.319 percent. Bond buyers are insisting on higher returns, and they should, given the billions of dollars in bonds the Treasury is auctioning this quarter and next. In the recent past, this reaction in the fixed-income market would have put downward pressure on stocks, but not this week.

 

The need of the U.S. Treasury to sell more longer-dated bonds and fewer short-term notes is forcing the Fed into a quandary. While the Fed stands pat on raising interest rates any further, the Treasury auction sales are forcing yields higher anyway. If this continues, (and it will) at some point equity investors will start to pay attention. That would not be good news for the stock market. In an election year, this could spell trouble for the incumbent.

 

The Fed may be forced to somehow ease the situation, but how? They have already said that cutting Interest rates too soon might spark an upsurge in inflation. The obvious answer, therefore, would be to ease up on the pedal of quantitative tightening, which would inject more liquidity into the financial markets. That would be good for markets and presumably the President.  

 

But right now, momentum traders don't care about bond yields, the dollar, or even corporate earnings for the most part. As I explained to readers last week, we have entered a riskier period of the market that can deliver great gains and great losses in quick succession. The first half of the week saw stocks plummet in fear that one company's results would take the entire market down. Thursday and Friday delivered the opposite results.

 

The momentum in the U.S. stock market is beginning to catch on in global markets as well. Japan's benchmark Nikkei Index hit a record high this week beating the previous record set 34 years ago. Shares in Frankfurt, Paris, and Milan gained more than 1 percent while Europe's Stoxx 600 Index also hit an all-time high. Even China considered a basket case and the worst market around, has seen stocks gain over the last week or two.

 

This stock market rally is getting a bit long in the tooth. The last two rallies that occurred (between 2022 and 2023) lasted between 16 and 19 weeks, gaining 20 percent and 21 percent respectively. This present one is in its 17th week with a gain of 23 percent thus far. Could it run further?

 

Yes, technical charts say we can, even though we could see some short-term weakness ahead. It appears that financial flows into equity markets are still strong, so there is enough buying power available to fuel further upside. And so far, stocks have not fallen on good news, if this week is any indication. My first target remains 5,140 on the S&P 500 Index, and we are getting close to that level. A short-term pullback could be in the offing. 

 

But after that, a rally that extends into mid-March, or even April could see a few percentage points tacked on to this year's gains. Let's target 5,220 on the S&P 500 Index as a good guess.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Stocks are climbing, scaling new heights while euphoria abounds. Momentum is pushing the technology sector, and AI stocks in particular. How long can it last and how high can it go?

 

It is the question on the minds of many on Wall Street. At this point, the consensus opinion is that we are due for a pullback. Even the bulls are getting worried as valuations become stretched.

 

However, valuations are in the eye of the beholder. While the price-earnings ratio of the market is about 21 percent, if you remove a handful of mega-cap stocks the average is only 17 times earnings. That handful of stocks has accounted for more than 50 percent of the gains this year in the S&P 500 Index. The Magnificent 7 (Meta, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) have long held leadership positions within the equity market. Recently, however, a few additional stocks have joined this pack of champions.

 

The "AI 5" (Nvidia, Microsoft, Advanced Micro Devices, Taiwan Semi-Conductor Manufacturing, and Broadcom) are companies that Wall Street analysts believe are leaders in the development of artificial intelligence. All but one (Microsoft) are semiconductor stocks. Momentum in these stocks as well as most of the Mag 7 stocks is through the roof. The last time we saw momentum at this level was in November 2021.

 

Market momentum, for those who are not aware, is the capacity for a price trend in a stock, stocks, or markets to continue and sustain itself (either higher or lower). As the AI movement picked up steam this year, for example, prices rose, traders jumped on the bandwagon, volume increased, prices climbed even higher, and more and more buyers piled into this group of stocks. A herding mentality has taken over and the chase is on!

 

There are plenty of money managers and traders who make a living buying and selling momentum. The idea is to buy the asset when it is rising and then sell after it has peaked in price. Don't be fooled; this is a dicey business. It is a trading maneuver that relies on a greater fool theory and has nothing to do with the fundamental value of the underlying security. 

 

In today's market, many investors are marveling at how high prices Microsoft Nvidia or any of the other Mag 7 and AI 5 stocks have reached. The same momentum trend helps explain why the stock markets, and particularly the technology sector, are pushing higher and higher. There is nothing new in this behavior. It has happened many times in the history of the stock market.

 

What happens next? At some point, the trend of chasing these stocks peters out. Momentum traders will usually be alerted by technical and computer programs that it is time to reverse positions. The highflyers will be sold and/or shorted. Those unfortunates that purchased at the peak will be left holding the bag.

 

Unfortunately, given that the market capitalization of these stocks is in the vicinity of several trillion dollars, the impact on the overall market will be quite large. It is one of the reasons that I believe the coming pullback in stocks could be between 7-10 percent. That may sound like a lot, but it would only be a normal correction in the history of the S&P 500 Index.

 

But before you rush out to sell everything, let me caution that no one knows how far the momentum game can carry stocks. This week we hit 5,000 and beyond on the S&P 500. That is a nice round number but has little significance otherwise. Given the right circumstances, we could see 5,150 or even higher in the weeks ahead. What I wouldn't do is add more money to the Mag 7 or AI 5.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

It was one of those weeks. A gauntlet of data had investors working overtime to figure out where stocks and the economy were going. At the same time, the Fed told investors that a March rate cut was off the table. And then the job data was announced.

 

The non-farm payroll report for January came in at almost double market expectations. Economists were expecting 185,000 gains, but the U.S. economy created 353,999 jobs. That was a blowout number that had traders torn between selling the market (because of the inflation implications) or buying it due to what it might say about future growth.

 

Strength in the job market and wages would mean the Fed will delay cutting interest rates while further growth in the economy could be good for future earnings. The Wednesday FOMC meeting illustrated that dilemma and what the Fed planned to do about it. In one word — nothing — no rate hikes, and no rate cuts either. The outcome was a disappointment.

 

I thought Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did a good job explaining the present state of the economy and the reasons the Federal Reserve wants to wait a little longer to ease monetary policy. He expects the economy to continue to grow and at the same time the progress toward reducing inflation will continue. The Fed has been watching the labor market for signs of weakness but slowing wage growth is more important than the number of unemployed workers. Given the huge gain last month in the payroll data, his decision to wait for the data to confirm the Fed's next move seems correct to me.

 

I had warned readers that those bulls who were expecting a March interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Bank were roaring up the wrong tree. And yet, going into the meeting, almost half of the market was betting on a cut. The news triggered a wave of selling that sent all three main averages down by more than a percent. Since I was not on the side of any Fed cut until May or even June, the sell-off felt overdone in my opinion. We regained much of those losses by Friday.

 

Beyond the Fed, the most important event was the fourth quarter earnings reports of five of the Mag 7. By Friday's close, the scorecard stood at three wins and two whiffs. Microsoft had decent earnings, but the stock sold off anyway at first, while Google disappointed investors. Meta and Amazon scored, and Apple whiffed.

 

Last week, I warned readers that all these stocks were priced for perfection and only stellar earnings and guidance would be able to justify further gains. Three out of five did just that and the markets reacted by hitting new highs.

 

There was good news on the U.S. Treasury financing front as well. The government announced it will need to raise less money via Treasury auctions this quarter. The mix between short-term notes and bills and longer-term bonds is tilting a little more toward the long end. That should keep the yield on U.S. Ten-year bonds supported. 

 

I expect stocks will continue higher, but the journey will be marred with sharp pullbacks. My target is still 5,000 -plus on the S&P 500 Index. Stepping back, however, I see these gains as part of an interim topping process that will end at some point this month or next in a stiff pullback.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.