There were plenty of reasons why the stock market was a bit jumpy this week. Let's go through them.

 

Two weeks ago, I wrote that I was worried "that we could suddenly see a spike in new Delta variant cases that impacts economic growth. Remember that less than half of all Americans are fully vaccinated. President Biden, his chief medical advisor Anthony Fauci, and the Fed are all sounding warnings over this risk, yet the markets are ignoring it."

 

Investors finally caught on this week and began to realize the risk presented by the Delta variant and its impact on the re-opening of the U.S. economy. It is impossible, in my opinion, to maintain the economic pace of recovery in the U.S. and achieve full employment without herd immunity. Herd immunity would require a vaccination total of 70 percent of the population, according to medical experts at the Center for Disease Control.

 

The radical right, and their elected officials, which represents roughly 40 percent of the population, refuse to get vaccinated, or even follow the most rudimentary medical safeguards. It is partisan politics at its worse. And as a result, in my opinion, the economy will have an extremely difficult time realizing its potential, nor will the United Sates truly recover from COVID-19.

 

The next news item roiling investors involves the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday. We already know that the Fed is planning to begin tapering, so it is really a question of when. Fed members were quoted as saying that "they might need to pull back their support for the economy sooner than they anticipated because of stronger than expected growth … ."

 

Despite Chairman Jerome Powell's assurances otherwise (that tapering would happen later, not sooner), we read that "various participants mentioned that they expected the conditions for beginning to reduce the pace of asset purchases to be met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated at previous meetings in light of the incoming data … ."

 

Investors simply took that to mean that sooner, rather than later, was now the Fed's timetable for tightening. When markets are at record highs, those are the kind of words that can (and did) ignite a decline.

 

And then we have the worrying yield trend of the U.S. Ten-Year Bond. The yield on the "Tens" fell to 1.25 percent this week. Less than a month ago, the worry was that yields would rise to 2 percent before the end of the year. What happened? It could be that fears of the new Delta variant have forced bond investors to seek safety in bonds, while adjusting the growth rate of the economy downward.

 

Another concern is that the OPEC-plus members have yet to come to any kind of production agreement. Traders expected that lack of compromise to put even more pressure on prices, but the opposite occurred. Some energy bears say that the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) refusal to back an increase in production has created a potential crack in the solidarity of the oil cartel. In which case, anything could happen.

 

Finally, the debacle involving the $4.4 billion, initial public offering of Didi, the Chinese ride-share company, has thrown global investors for a loop. Last weekend, a day after the IPO, the Chinese government ordered the company to cease accepting new users and to close down its app. Chinese regulatory authorities are probing whether Didi, as well as other companies, illegally collected and utilized personal data.

 

In the past year or two, these regulatory probes of Chinese companies have been increasing. Chinese, global growth companies like Alibaba, and its wholly owned subsidiary, financial credit giant, Ant Group, have been ham-strung by the Chinese government's initiative to exert control over social media and how they handle, collect and share data. Regulators in November of 2020, for example, simply halted Ant Group's multi-billion-dollar dual listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai at the last minute.

 

Didi's share price was down more than 20 percent since its IPO and other large Chinese companies, especially those in social media and e-commerce, have dropped more than 30 percent in the past few months. That has put even more pressure on the markets.

 

Readers should expect more volatility in the days ahead. There are fewer traders, less volume and more opportunity for algos to move markets up and down at the drop of a hat. It is a good time to take some time off and enjoy the summer weather. Stay invested.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

The S&P 500 Index is up 14 percent so far this year. Most other averages have similar double-digit gains. July is normally a fairly positive month (in general) for equities.  Does that mean we can expect equities to continue their bull run through the summer?

 

It certainly looks that way. Any pullbacks in stocks will likely be met by dip buyers. That could limit declines to a manageable level. A sustained rise in interest rates will likely wait until investors know with certainty the Fed's next move. The thinking is that there will be an announcement on tapering bond purchases, which may not happen until August, or September, if then.

 

Inflation has receded as a topic of concern for many on Wall Street. The decline in commodity prices has calmed nervous investors worried about runaway inflation. The U.S. dollar has also gained ground versus most other currencies. As a result, we appear to be in a sweet spot for equities.

 

This week, the NASDAQ, which had been lagging behind both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, finally broke to new highs led by the semiconductor index.

 

The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) is a capitalization-weighted Index of 30 semiconductor companies.  The SOX is an important telltale index. It has led the stock market higher throughout the year. I would advise readers who want to know where the markets are going to keep an eye on the SOX as a leading indicator for the markets' direction overall.

 

But the big story for investors is the continued rise in oil prices. The OPEC-plus producers meeting that was held on Thursday of this week carried over until Friday. One member, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is objecting to any increase in production and supply because they are not convinced that there will be a strong global recovery, OPEC had planned to increase output in the coming months, but at a slower rate than anticipated. Monthly output increases by OPEC and its allies (including Russia) would amount to less than 500,000 barrels/day between August and December, if the UAE can be convinced to go along.

 

OPEC members are anticipating that demand for oil will increase by 5 million barrels in the second half of 2021, which could create a further supply and demand imbalance. Oil prices, under that scenario, could rise (some say to as high as $100 a barrel). That would put price pressure on consuming nations, while adding to the risk of higher inflation.

 

Cynics believe the organization (led by Saudi Arabia) is deliberately engineering this squeeze play to gain back some of the losses incurred by oil producers last year.

 

Of course, OPEC's consumption forecast of 5 million barrels could fail to materialize and that is what the UAE is worried about. The COVID-19 Delta variant, they believe, is a wild card. A surge in the virus variant could impact global energy consumption far more than expected. In the U.S., gasoline consumption might not be as high as anticipated. And if U.S. and Iran come to a nuclear agreement and embargos are lifted, increased Iranian supply could come back on stream in the months ahead.

 

As readers are aware, oil was one of my top picks to outperform this year. I still believe energy and energy shares are a good investment, despite the outsized gains of the first half. But buyers beware. Commodities can be great investments, but they also carry great risks. I would wait for a pullback before venturing into the oil patch. Depending on what happens over the weekend at OPEC, you may get your chance.  

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped the most since 2009. That follows a similar gain over the past three months that has brought the total increase to 6.9 percent on an annualized pace.

 

That is the largest gain in 13 years.

 

Excluding the notoriously volatile food and energy components, however, the "core" CPI rose by 0.7 percent, which was still larger than the forecast of 0.5 percent. Readers might scratch their head when looking at those numbers, since excluding food and energy makes little sense to us, who are faced with weekly rises in both commodities.

 

The difference is that the price of chicken or a $3 gallon of gas might reverse at a moment's notice while core component prices are stickier and longer lasting. The underlying cause of these price gains are easy to explain. The economy is re-opening, sparking a rush of consumer demand. At the same time, there are shortages of materials caused by shipping bottlenecks that are leading to higher input costs, including rising wages.

 

Government stimulus checks and pent-up demand by consumers has led to growing back orders and below-normal inventories of goods. The used car and truck market, for example, is red hot and accounted for fully one-third of the overall increase in the CPI. Consumer product companies, from fast food restaurants to women's clothing stores (and a slew of other enterprises) are ratcheting up prices as demand continues to rise.

 

As if to underscore this trend, initial jobless claims fell for the sixth straight week to a new, pandemic-era low. More job gains in the weeks and months ahead may fuel this rising tide of consumer demand, and spending. But will it fuel even higher inflation?

 

Market pundits had predicted if inflation ran hot, investors would get even more anxious that the Fed might tighten, in which case, the markets would tumble, but they did just the opposite. A look under the hood of the core CPI number reveals inflation was not as "hot" as it first appeared. If you subtract the price increase in used cars, which the market considers transitory, the core rate was actually lower than analysts expected.

 

That gave the Fed's "inflation will be transitory" argument more credence among nervous bond investors. The so-called bond vigilantes responded by driving interest rates lower.

 

The benchmark U.S. Ten-Year Treasury Bond fell to under 1.50 percent.

 

The S&P 500 Index had been attempting to break to new highs every other day this week, only to fall back in defeat by the end of each session. The CPI announcement was the catalyst it needed to finally break out of its range to a new, all-time high. The other averages followed suit but failed to make new highs.

 

Lower interest rates should continue to act as support for the equity markets overall. We are entering the summer doldrums at this point, which should mean a slower tempo to the markets. I expect equities to continue their "two steps forward, one step backward" sort of advance.

 

The S&P 500 should climb higher (maybe another 40 points or so) through the beginning of next week. The Fed's FOMC meeting is scheduled for mid-week, so investors will be keen to listen for any clues of future monetary policy from Central Bank Chairman Jerome Powell.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

It was a sleepy week in the markets for the major averages. Stocks flirted with the old highs, only to fall back by the end of the week. Energy and a few meme stocks occupied most of the attention.

 

Crude oil spiked higher, nearing almost $70 a barrel (bbl.), pulling energy stocks along with it. Energy traders were heartened by the latest OPEC meeting. The cartel expects demand to outstrip supply by more than a million barrels a day for the foreseeable future. As a result, the members intend to gradually increase production as the global economy gathers steam. Most analysts expect oil to breach $70/bbl. before taking a break.

 

Certain stocks such as AMC and GameStop, which have been dubbed "meme" stocks by the Reddit crowd of retail traders, had an unbelievable week of gains. AMC, the nation's largest theater chain, for example, saw its stock gain by more than 100 percent in one day. The price rise finally slowed and then reversed after the company announced two consecutive stock offerings over three days.

 

There is no fundamental reason to justify this kind of price movements. I witnessed the same thing during the Dot.Com boom (and bust) back in the beginning of this century. For those who can ride the bull, I applaud you. I just hope you are lucky enough to exit before you get trampled. Buyers beware.

 

Investors are also watching the infrastructure negotiations between the two political parties. The horse trading is getting intense. Reports that President Biden might be willing to revise his proposal to increase the corporate tax rate to 28 percent from 21 percent cheered markets. That tax hike has been a major roadblock in winning Republican support for his infrastructure plan.

 

The Washington Post reported that Biden might consider a minimum corporate tax rate of 15 percent instead. On the surface, that might seem to be a tax cut from the present 21 percent rate. However, few corporations pay the going rate (although politicians like to pretend they do). The actual tax, after all the credits and loopholes in the tax law, usually results in a payment that is a substantial discount to the stated tax rate. Some large corporations pay no tax at all.  

 

Another indication that the U.S. Central Bank sees further signs of economic recovery is that the Fed announced it was preparing to sell its $13 billion corporate bond and ETF portfolio (called the Secondary Market Corporate Credit facility, which it established during the pandemic). Officials made it clear that this was a separate move and should not be considered as a move toward tightening monetary policy.

 

May's Non-Farm Payroll employment report for May 2021, which was announced on June 4, was the second monthly disappointment in a row. New hires came in at 559,000 jobs. That was far lower than the 675,000 expected, but bad news proved to be good news for the financial markets. Stocks rallied since markets are keenly focused on the "tapering" conversation.

 

Some Federal Reserve Bank members continue to talk openly about the need to start tapering purchases of fixed income assets. Yet, other "doves" on the FOMC board remain convinced that we need several more months of data before beginning that process. The weak employment numbers give credence to those Fed officials who want to go slow.

 

Continued, easy monetary policy means interest rates should remain low, which is good for equity assets. And so the stock market rallied on the Non-Farm Payroll "bad" news. At this point, traders are expecting to hear more about tapering from Fed officials after their mid-June FOMC meeting with a possible announcement on when tapering will begin around the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference in August.

 

Equity markets, I believe, will continue to be a battle between bulls and bears. While summers are usually a slow period in the markets, I suspect this year we could see further turbulence and possibly further gains. That could keep the pros close to the terminals, since we are quite close to historical highs on the S&P 500 Index. A break above them (at 4,238) would give the bulls clear sailing to 4,300. The question is what new piece of news could trigger that breakout?

 

The crypto currency market, on the other hand, remains subdued. Bitcoin continues to trade in a range between $33,500-$38,000. Technicians seem to be biding their time before making a move. Many believe Bitcoin must either break decisively below $33,000 to sell it, or above $40,000 for new purchases.

 

In the commodities corner, copper, gold, and silver took it on the chin this week after the U.S. dollar bounced off three-week lows, while oil continued to rally. Volatility like this is the name of the game when investing in crypto currencies, commodities, and commodity stocks. There is a saying "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen," so invest accordingly.  

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

Most stocks took it on the chin earlier this week. Technology shares lead the rout, but it didn't take long before just about everything else followed tech lower. By the end of the week, it was as if nothing had happened. That's called "chop." Get used to it.

 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which investors use to gauge future inflation, took the lion's share of the blame for the downdraft in equities. Economists had warned that we should expect a higher monthly reading (0.2 percent) for April, but the data came in at 0.8 percent. That computes to a 4.2 percent price gain year-over-year and was almost triple the rate that anyone had expected.

 

The market reaction was swift. Interest rates spiked higher along with the dollar, while equities dropped. The carnage continued for three straight days, taking the S&P 500 Index down 4.2 percent from its high of 4,238. Traders waited until the index hit its 50-day moving average at 4,056 before buying the dip. A relief rally on Thursday and Friday repaired about half the damage.

 

The CPI shock was not a one-off, statistical aberration, however. April's Producer Price Index (PPI) was also released this week, showing a jump of 6.2  percent versus a year ago. That was the largest increase since the Bureau of Labor Statistics started tracking the data in 2010. The monthly increase of 0.6 percent was twice the expected gain.

 

Economists were quick to explain that the numbers were not as bad as they appeared, since a year ago the economy was in a free fall.  Prices were at their lows during the pandemic, so comparisons were bound to be stronger than expected and will continue to be so for the next several months. They have a point and investors seemingly calmed down a bit.

 

Over the past few months, the fear of uncontrolled future inflation, fueled by governmental stimulus and a growing economy, has been a primary concern among traders. There is presently a tug of war between the Fed, which believes that this spike in inflation will be transitory at best, and the inflation bears who argue that there is no such thing as transitory.

 

This week, the market algo computers sold stocks on the CPI news and it took cooler heads a day or so to prevail largely on the news that the Center for Disease Control (CDC) announced they were lifting inside mask restrictions for those who have been vaccinated.  That revived the bulls, who piled into the re-opening trade once again

 

I had written last week that the best investors could expect from the markets over the next few weeks would be marching in place. I warned that there was also a real possibility we could experience a 5-10 percent decline in the S&P 500 Index and worse in the NASDAQ.  Well, this week we lost almost 5 percent in the benchmark S&P 500 and closer to 10 percent in a lot of technology stocks. Some of those high-flying, next generation stocks with no earnings or sales have experienced a 30-50 percent pull back in the last few weeks. Some may be tempted to get back into these names but now is not the time, in my opinion. Better to focus on value and cyclical stocks that have real earnings, dividends and a strong balance sheet.

 

It is after all, the month of May, and so far it has lived up to the admonition to "sell in May." It is quite possible that we will see the same kind of chop in the markets for a while. If so, I advise readers to sit on your hands, do nothing and ignore the noise. Otherwise, it could be you who ends up on the chopping block.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.