In a few months, be prepared for politicians of both parties to turn up the heat as the June debt ceiling deadline approaches. Normally, the stock market responds with increased volatility. The question is should investors pay attention at all?

 

That may sound like heresy given that we are talking about the full faith and credit of the United States of America. If the government defaults on its debt, the global repercussions of such an event would be momentous. Currencies would plummet, stocks would crash, and interest rates would soar. Armageddon would reign, or at least that's what is predicted to happen, but no one knows for sure because the U.S. has never defaulted on its fiscal responsibilities.

 

"But there could always be a first time," you might say. And that is exactly why politicians can hold the nation hostage to advance their political careers while making outlandish demands that they know will never become law.

 

Legislation establishing a debt ceiling was passed in 1939. Since then, Congress has revamped the limit 100 times since World War II. Back then, Congress was more heavily involved in federal borrowing, as opposed to today, where the focus is solely on spending. For those who are unaware, the debt limit is not in the Constitution, nor in any of its 27 amendments. It is at best, a statute (law) that gives politicians a chance to disrupt, lie, evade, and create headaches for the country whenever they please.

 

The biggest joke of all is that the debt limit reflects money that has already been spent and is now owed to others. Has it ever stopped Congress from spending more money? No, at most it just redistributes spending into different areas such as more in defense, less in social programs, or vice versa for a short time. Given that serves no policy purpose whatsoever, why have one?

 

Because it is an immense bargaining chip for some.

 

Fear of default gives leverage to those who have none. All that is necessary is to threaten while stretching out any compromise agreement to the last possible moment. By doing so, they are counting on the financial markets to become unwilling negotiators on their behalf. Those leading the opposition to raise the debt limit receive enormous coverage by the media.

 

Demands for programs and legislation, no matter how outlandish, that have nothing to do with the debt limit give politicians a national forum and unearned legitimacy. Debt limits become the saving grace for the economy and the nation for a few short months. However, when they finally do vote to raise the limit, few hear about it.

 

Unfortunately, all this rhetoric seeps into the national consciousness. In a recent poll by the Economist, only 38 percent of U.S. adult citizens (and only 20 percent of Republicans) think Congress should raise the debt ceiling.  Given those numbers, it is no wonder that agreeing to pay the debts we already owe has become an extremely partisan affair.

 

As for those on the other side of the debate, in this case, the Biden administration, there are a variety of avenues available to them if they choose to take them. The U.S. Treasury, for example, could stop making some payments (Social Security and Congressional salaries for example), while coupon and principal payments continue to be paid in full out of tax revenues.

 

A more drastic direction would be to keep the debt ceiling in place, but the Treasury borrows more money anyway arguing that failing to do so would be unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment. They could also mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin that could be used to fund new spending, including debt service on the national debt. The problem with pursuing any of the above would be that it would almost guarantee that the Republicans in Congress would have no incentive to vote to raise the debt ceiling.

 

Democrats have learned some hard lessons by giving in to debt limit demands in the past. Back in 2011, during a clash between former President Obama and the Republican Tea Party, the administration spent months negotiating without success.

 

At the eleventh hour, an agreement was fashioned by Mitch McConnell and some Democrats to avoid a debt default. But the credit markets, spooked by the close call and partisan behavior, downgraded the country's credit ranking for the first time, which resulted in raising the costs of our future borrowings.

 

The facts are that those who threaten default are part of the partisan political process, but some person, group, or party that causes a debt default will go down in flames along with the economy and nation. Politicians know this, or if they don't there are still enough level heads in Washington to get the deal done.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

One of the silver linings of the pandemic was an explosion of startups throughout the nation. After a 40-year decline, entrepreneurship rose from the ashes, and contrary to expectations continues to thrive today. What is behind this trend?

 

In 2020, the early days of COVID-19, as unemployment skyrocketed and businesses shut down by the thousands, 4.3 million new business applications were filed, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That was one million more than in 2019.

 

The following year (2021), 1.8 million companies were formed, which was a record. Last year, the numbers dropped a little to 1.7 million applications, but still up 28 percent from the pre-pandemic days. Funny enough, the worst event of the last 100 years, COVID-19, was the trigger for this economic renaissance.

 

The pandemic was an unparalleled global catastrophe. As such, some of those pandemic start-ups were born out of necessity. The U.S. unemployment rate hit double digits. More than 30,000 businesses shut down. Waves of unemployed, with no prospect of finding another job in the lockdowns that swept the nation, started a business simply to survive.

 

At the same time, a surge in migration out of the infected urban centers to more rural, less populous areas, resulted in a surge in business startups. At the same time, the trend in work-from-home exploded.

 

Professional and technical services were two of the top sectors where entrepreneurs staked a claim, accounting for 23 percent of the net increase in all startups, according to the Economic Innovation Group (EIG), a Washington-based think tank. Another area that blossomed was support services for the elderly and disabled, a demographic group that was devastated by the virus. That area experienced a 13 percent growth rate.

 

One of the reasons that galvanized entrepreneurs of every age to try their hand at a new business was a decline in the barriers to entry. It turned out that starting a new business on the internet, for example, was much easier than they were back in the Financial Crisis of 2008. Entrepreneurial neophytes planning business startups now have widely available broadband, even in many rural areas. There is also a much greater digital fluency in all things internet, and a mature and dynamic e-commerce marketplace. Those strengths make website creation, marketing, and online sales far easier to establish.

 

I should also give the government its due in its response to the economic fallout created by COVID-19. The Pandemic relief checks, for example, went a long way in providing the seed money for many of these new ventures. Of course, we now blame the government for spending too much during this period and igniting inflation, yet no one I know has offered to refund those checks to the federal government.

 

The question is whether the pandemic fallout has somehow reinvigorated the creative juices of all these modern-day Horatio Algers, or is this just a flash in the pan?

 

The relative steadiness in new business applications since 2020 indicates that this trend may be here to stay. When one looks at all sectors, rather than just those that were booming during the pandemic years, we find start-ups rising across most sectors. Only four out of 19 sectors, according to the Census Bureau, saw 2022 applications below pre-pandemic levels.

 

Across the nation, the southern United States experiencing the largest boom in startups, while the Northeast has the smallest. It is also encouraging that entrepreneurs were able to shake off the impact of a spike in inflation and threats of recession throughout last year. What we don't know is how many of these new businesses are simply part-time, side jobs earning a few bucks to supplement existing salaries.

 

As a guess, a survey conducted by Venture Forward, a multi-year research program from GoDaddy to quantify entrepreneurial activity, indicated that roughly 39 percent of micro business founders said their enterprise was a supplemental source of income. However, 67 percent of them would like to see their start-up become their full-time job.

 

The key to a flourishing future economy is greater economic dynamism. Those entrepreneurs that can flourish by providing new jobs, greater innovation, and productivity advancements could drive this nation's long-term growth. We could be on the verge of a much-needed shot in the arm from this group. I am betting on their success, how about you?

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

In 2022, Congress increased the amount an individual can contribute to an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) as well as a 401(k), 403(b), and most 457 plans. If you have not already, it is time to increase your contributions for 2023 to take advantage of this opportunity.

 

If you missed it, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced in October 2022 the largest-ever annual increase in 401(k) contributions. It boosted the maximum contribution limit by $2,000 to $22,500 for 2023. For those over 50 years old, an additional "catch-up" contribution will rise by $1,000 to $7,500. As for the contribution limits for an individual IRA, an additional $50 in contributions to $6,500 from $6,000 last year was implemented. The catch-up amount, however, remains the same at $1,000.

 

The IRS also raises the income threshold for which tax deductions for IRA contributions will be phased out. For those who are not aware, at a certain level of income, you can still contribute to a tax-deferred account, but you don't get a tax deduction when you do. The new income bar will be set at $73,000 to $83,000 for individuals and single heads of households, and for married couples filing jointly, the new threshold will be $109,000 to $129,999 for married couples.

 

These are generous benefits, and they are occurring at just the right time. Unfortunately, many savers may be hesitant to take advantage of this gift. There is a tendency among those saving for retirement to reduce or postpone contributions to their retirement accounts when the equity markets are declining, or inflation is rising. Allianz Life, a Minneapolis-based insurance company, found in a recent survey that 54 percent of Americans reduced or stop contributions to their retirement savings.

 

On the surface, with trillions of dollars wiped out of retirement savings, I can understand this hesitation. Human nature is such that the first reaction in a down market to putting more money in the markets is not to. With the average retirement account down 20 percent in 2022, I often hear "Why put good money after bad in a market like this?"

 

The answer is that the best time to invest is when the markets are going down, not up. Furthermore, at least for those saving through a 401(k) or similar plan, contributions are made monthly and usually on autopilot. That means as the markets decline each month you contribute your cost basis on a particular fund or stock is going down — not up. That means you are getting a better price month after month on your investments and buying more shares at the same time.

 

"Yes," you may say, "but the total amount in my retirement plan is going down." That's true, but for how long?

 

Remember, this is money that you are saving for retirement. It is not money you will be spending next week or next year. Consider this: Since 1928, the benchmark S&P 500 Index has suffered through 21 bear markets, or, on average, one every 4.5 years. The typical bear market lasted 388 days or a little over one year. That means that every five years or so you get the opportunity to buy the market at a great price.

 

This year, you are getting a double whammy: the savvy saver is not only getting to buy at a great price, but Uncle Sam is allowing you even more tax-deductible money to spend in the form of increased contributions to your retirement plans across the board.

 

 If the bears are correct, sometime in this first quarter, the stock market may plummet once again. If it does, I suspect markets will rebound and likely go higher from there. Still not convinced then consider it this way; let's say you are in the market for a top-of-the-line, new car. Suddenly, your local dealership announces a sale on the auto you want at a 30 percent discount off the list price and offers you a credit on top of that, plus a guarantee that the car will appreciate over the next 15 years. would you buy it?

 

Hopefully, you have already increased your contributions for 2023. If you haven't, I suggest you call your back office and arrange to increase your monthly contributions right now. In the years to come, you will thank me for it. 

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

As the New Year gets underway, the fitness industry is breathing a sigh of relief. It has been a rough three years for those who provide the means to a healthy body for millions of Americans, but times are changing for the better.

 

During the pandemic, one in four health and fitness facilities across the nation closed permanently. Americans, who were forced to hunker down at home either gave up their fitness routine overall or made do as best they could with a few dumbbells and maybe, if they could afford it, online membership to one of the many internet fitness sites such as Peloton.

 

Most readers are not aware that gyms and fitness studios were among the hardest-hit businesses during that period. First, it was the lockdowns, followed by limits on the number of people allowed to attend classes, or even to work out at the gym. Strict rules on wiping down equipment, wearing masks, and maintaining distances between members discouraged even the most die-hard members after a time.

 

While other services such as restaurants, bars, and other live venues were supported with federal aid, health clubs were left to survive on their own. The National Health & Fitness Alliance, an industry group, found that 25 percent of U.S. health clubs and studios closed permanently due to the pandemic. My gym, a nationwide franchise, was among the victims.

 

Personally, my wife, Barbara, and I are confirmed gym rats and have been for decades, so COVID-19 decimated our routines. Fortunately, we were early members of Peloton, so we already had the bike for several years before the pandemic. These online classes had already been included in our daily routine at home.

 

In addition, we own a rower, and a comprehensive set of weights, which we used when not at the gym. Thanks to that backup equipment, we managed to maintain our physical routines during this period. Of course, our living room suddenly became a mini gym, but our workouts were just too important to sacrifice. In addition, we supplanted our indoor activities with an increased level of outdoor hiking, lake swimming, kayaking, and aquacise.

 

However, we recognize that both of us are highly motivated individuals, and somewhat competitive. All I need to see is my wife huffing and puffing during one of her internet classes for me to jump on the rower, or go for a run shortly thereafter — but that's us. I recognize that not everyone is as motivated (obsessed) with physical fitness as we are.

 

For many, the health club functions as a community where social interaction and group motivation is as important as exercise for many members. To their credit, the industry fought back as membership plummeted, and did what it could to survive. They diversified their offerings to maintain and attract members.

 

Outdoor classes in parking lots, public parks, and beaches, even winter greenhouses, sprang up across the U.S. On the weekend, for example, one enterprising local gym set up shop in a lakeside parking lot. Berkshire Money Management, whose owner Allen Harris, is another dedicated gym rat, offered his company grounds as an outdoor venue for both yoga and workout enthusiasts.

 

By necessity, class sizes were reduced, and workout areas enlarged, while many gyms pivoted to online training sessions. Personal training has also come back into fashion. All these innovations seem to be working. Many facilities plan to continue and enlarge these services into a hybrid form of exercise that encompasses both the home and the fitness facility.

 

It is not as if the business is booming at health clubs quite yet. Foot traffic is still down 3 percent compared to the beginning of 2019, but up 40 percent compared to 2021, according to Placer.ai, which tracks foot traffic in the retail gym space. And don't forget we are in the optimal time of the year for new memberships at health clubs. The New Year resolutions crowd is joining gyms once again. If history is any guide, half of these new members will fall by the wayside within three months.

 

However, one unintended positive consequence of the pandemic for the industry is that it did drive home to most Americans the importance of a healthy body. The impact of COVID and its various mutations has proven to be far more serious for those individuals who are unhealthy, obese, and with chronic illnesses. That may change the equation in the psyche of many. In short, in a post-pandemic world, a healthy body could be the difference between life and death for many Americans.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

On the surface, you would think that inflation has hit the lottery. Billionaire-dollar jackpots were infrequent until recently. But lately, the total winnings in the Mega Millions lottery have hit close to or over that magical mark several times. Is it inflation, or something else that has moved these jackpots to a whole new level?

 

There was a time when winning a million dollars in one of the nation's weekly lotteries was a big deal. Today, million-dollar winnings are no more than consolation prizes for those who picked a couple of winning numbers, but not the whole enchilada. As of today, there have been only a few times that the U.S. lottery has surpassed $1 billion. I don't know about you, but I have played and lost every one of them.  

 

For those who don't know, the lottery is played in 45 states. It is also available in the District of Columbia and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A breakdown of the proceeds of your $2 ticket is interesting. Seventy-five cents funds the jackpot, approximately 35 cents go to non-jackpot prizes and the rest (90 cents) goes to the government. It is much more than that, since winners are required to pay taxes on their gains.

 

As a rule of thumb, the after-tax lump sum of winning a $1 billion prize is somewhere north of $600 million, since the federal tax rate is about 40 percent. Oh, and don't forget the IRS withholds an extra 25 to 28 percent because the winnings came from gambling. Of course, there are also state taxes to worry about as well, unless you live in a state that doesn't charge a tax on your winnings. Add all of this up and the government's share of your ticket can easily top $1.30.

 

We all know that the chance of winning the lottery is low, like 300 million to one low. Statistically speaking, that's close to zero. But it is worse than you think. If you do win, there is a 50 percent chance that you will have to share the jackpot with at least one other winner who chose the same numbers. Back in 2016, there was a $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot that had to be split three ways.

 

But winning anything from the nation's lotteries has become harder and harder overall. Mega Millions and Powerball organizers have been gradually reducing the odds of winning for decades. The largest change was back in 2015 when the lottery added more number combinations, which nearly halved the odds of winning.

 

 Before the change, the odds of winning Powerball, for example, were around 175 million to one. Today, those odds stand at 292.2 million to one. Mega Millions waited until 2017 before adding more number combinations to their game, while also increasing ticket prices. The results are the same. You are now paying more for a product that has reduced your chance of winning.

 

Nonetheless, we keep playing and losing. Another way organizers are luring more ticket sales from us is to direct more of their revenues toward winning the jackpot, and less on smaller prizes, which are easier to win. Many players do not realize that the advertised jackpot size is based on the amount a winner receives if they chose to be paid out in an annuity over 30 years.

 

This is where today's higher interest rates inflate the prize. The higher the interest rates are during a drawing will translate into a higher total payout from the life of the annuity fund. The lump-sum option, on the other hand, is directly fueled by ticket sales. In November 2022, when one Powerball jackpot stood at $1.2 billion, the lump sum option was worth less than $600 million.

 

Is it any wonder, given the reduced probabilities of winning, that there are fewer jackpot winners?   That is just fine with the organizers because the jackpots just get bigger and bigger as they are rolled over. That in turn attracts more and more ticket sales, which means you are playing against a bigger and bigger crowd. That in turn reduces the odds of winning even lower, and so goes the vicious circle.

 

Most people are aware that the odds are stacked against them, so why do we play? Assuming you are not addicted to gambling, I am guessing that like me there is always the hope that for $2 all my wishes will come true. Purchasing a ticket, I usually have at least two days' worth of daydreaming about what I would do with all that money before the next drawing. Come to think about it, that's a cheap dopamine high for my two bucks.

 

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires. His forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners Inc. (OPI). None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at 1-413-347-2401 or email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.