@theMarket: Back to the Future, Again
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The last two weeks stocks have consolidated, exhibiting greater volatility with the S&P 500 correcting roughly 7 percent. It appears that correction is just about over as investors are once again "buying the dip" on the back of increasingly good news on the economic front.
"But a 10.2 percent unemployment rate isn't bullish," argued a client in Sheffield on Friday.
"It is and it isn't," I countered.
Remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator while the stock market is a forward looking entity. Often unemployment can continue to rise well after the economy begins a recovery. So while the headline number of 10.2 percent was bearish, the underlying rate of decline in new jobs continues to ease from month to month. That's positive, indicating that employers are no longer laying off workers en masse as they were a year ago.
The economic indicators that look forward (called leading indicators); things like new manufacturer's orders for consumer goods, capital goods, materials, building permits, the spread between long- and short-term interest rates (the yield curve) and consumer expectations are all moving in the right direction. The S&P 500 index is also a leading indicator and you know what's happened there over the last six months.
You may not agree with it, but the government's stimulus package appears to be working. Just this week an extension of the first time home buyer credit combined with a new $6,500 credit for existing home owners/buyers has been introduced. The president, responding to Friday's unemployment rate, also said that he is planning even more stimulus efforts in the form of road/bridge investment, more tax cuts for businesses to create jobs, boosting credit to small businesses, more support for exporters and other measures. The bottom line here is that the government has bigger pockets than we do so don’t bet against the success of their efforts to stimulate the economy.
Sure, you can worry that these efforts will be inflationary down the road, or that the money we are spending will eventually pauper this nation or any number of other scenarios; but right here, right now, the government cares about one thing—getting unemployment down to manageable levels in time for the election in 2012.
Speaking of inflation, have you noticed the prices of gold and silver lately? Since my column "All that Glitters," precious metals have been on a tear. In a recent conversation with Portfolio Manager Michael Guggino of The Permanent Fund, a conservative asset allocation fund, Guggino said he expects commodities overall will continue to run as a result of the U.S. and other countries efforts to re-flate their economies. You can hear my entire interview with Michael by going to www.berkshiremm.com and clicking the "Radio Interviews" button.
Remember, too, that John Roque, technical analyst par excellence, and also a guest on my radio show, is still convinced that we will see gold at $1,200 to $1,300 an ounce before we are too much older. I agree with both of them.
Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative and portfolio manager with Berkshire Money Management (BMM), managing more than $200 million for investors in the Berkshires. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of BMM. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice. Direct your inquiries to Bill at
1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or e-mail him at wschmick@fairpoint.net Visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill’s insights.You can also tune in to Bill's "@theMarket" show on Vox radio every Friday morning at 8:35, 9:35 and 11:05 or on WBRK at 4:05 every weekday afternoon.
Anyone seeking individualized investment advice should contact a qualified investment adviser. None of the information presented in this article is intended to be and should not be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. The reader should not assume that any strategies, or specific investments discussed are employed, bought, sold or held by BMM.
