| |
Election
Trying to remember who won what and why? All the information is right here. |
Daily Digest
This is Jake
He's been lost in Pittsfield for weeks but frequently sited. He was last seen heading toward the fire station on Peck's Road. He's tired, dirty and needs seizure medication. He's chipped. If you see him, call Julie at 413-537-5616, the vet 24/7 at 413-499-2820 or animal control at 413-448-9700. |
ObituariesSales FliersWhat's Playing
The popular anime character "Astro Boy" searches for acceptance on the big screen.
|
BazaarsNov. 7:
VNA & Hospice, Community Room, North Adams
North Adams Elks
10-4; Nov. 8, 9-2
Crafters, Chinese auction, bake sale
For vendor information, Melanie at 413-743-5562.
Nov. 14
Berkshire Community Church, Richmond
10-4; Crafters, bake sale. Contact Evelyn Goggia at 413-445-5747
Lanesborough Elementary School annual Fall Craft Fair from 10 to 4. Free admission, huge variety of arts and crafts, raffles, food and more. Proceeds go to sixth-grade trip to Cape Cod.
Vendors can contact Deb at 413-738-5349 or debhutton@aol.com or Lori at 413-499-0065 or lorittod@yahoo.com to secure a spot.
Dec. 12-13
North Adams Country Club, crafts 9-4; food from That's a Wrap from 11-2. Contact Sheryl Morehouse at 413-822-3329.
Planning a bazaar this season? Submit information to info@iberkshires.com to have it listed here. |
Sports | Thursday, Nov. 06
Boys' Soccer: State Vocational Championship Game
McCann Tech 3, Keefe Tech 2
Girls' Soccer: State Vocational Championship Game
Blackstone Valley 8, McCann Tech 0 |
Related Stories |
| |
@theMarket: Where's the Bounce?By Bill Schmick
iBerkshire
10:58AM / Saturday, March 07, 2009
 | | Bill Schmick |
"Shouldn't the market bounce here?"
"How oversold can we get?"
"Are stocks going to zero?"
These are the kinds of questions I fielded this week from clients. My answers:
"Yes, a market bounce is long overdue."
"But we can go down another 10 percent in the blink of an eye regardless of oversold conditions."
And finally,
"No, not all stocks are going to zero but some are and a lot more are going to trade for cents on the dollar."
For example, AIG, the largest insurance company in the world and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest mortgage companies in the country, are officially penny stocks. I expect Citibank will joint their ranks soon. It is now just a tad above $1 a share while Ford and GM are not far behind.
This week was brutal. The markets suffered almost a 10 percent decline. Over the last 20 days the Dow has lost 20 percent and 26 percent so far this year. The others averages have faired no better. From its October 2007 peak, the Dow is down 53.4 percent, the second largest decline (after the 1929 Crash) since 1896. We also hit my 680 target on the S&P 500 by the way, but I take no joy in being bearish for the last 14 months.
Since people in the forecasting business get no credit for past performance however, no sooner did we hit my level then clients and readers began to call or e-mail with the obvious question.
"So, Bill what happens now?"
There is no easy answer. One should expect at least a healthy bounce from these levels. Something along the order of 10 to 20 percent or more, which is what we experienced after the October and November lows of last year. But so far every rally attempt has been nipped in the bud by sellers.
As I wrote two weeks ago in "The Worst Kind of Decline," none of the capitulation that identifies a bottom has occurred yet. There is no panic, no mad rush for the exits only a constant, orderly selling pressure. Since just about every trader on Wall Street is expecting a "bounce," the most inconvenient thing that could happen to the most number of people is for the markets to just continue to go lower.
If I just do a simple, off-the-cuff calculation of where the S&P 500 could go next, 538 would be a guess from a technical standpoint. From a fundamental point of view, I could argue that the markets won't bottom until the S&P 500 index is selling at a single digit price/earnings ratio (P/E). That level might finally attract value investors. From that perspective, the market would need to fall to 459.
So let's take the average and round it to 500. As I've said before, no one can call a bottom so we will call 500 our worse-case scenario. That would take us back to 1995, the lowest level in 14 years.
However, not all investments are declining. As I mentioned last week, gold and silver have experienced a healthy correction. Both precious metals traded down to the bottom of my target range (gold at $904 an ounce, silver at $12.26 an ounce.) Since Thursday, both have begun trading upwards again. I believe that will continue.
At the same time, my other recommendations, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, have also had a winning week with the dollar now at a six-year high versus the Euro. These are flight to safety investments that should continue to work well in my opinion until the downside in the stock markets subsides.
Bill Schmick is a licensed investment adviser representative and portfolio strategist as well as a registered financial planner with Berkshire-based Dion Money Management, which manages more than $400 million for middle-class Americans from coast to coast. Direct your inquires to Bill at   1-877-850-7942, Ext. 146, (toll-free) or e-mail him at wschmick@dionmm.com. You can also visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insight. |
|
Enter your email address below to receive our FREE iBerkshires.com Newsletter
|
|
