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Daily DigestYuck!
 There's a winter storm warning in effect until 7 a.m. on Thursday with 2 to 4 inches of snow expected. Be prepared for a messy morning commute as freezing rain and sleet move through the region. The morning commute will be slippery — drive careful!
Some New York schools, including Hoosick Falls Central School and St. Mary's Academy in Hoosick Falls have already canceled classes.
All North County schools are closed; Pittsfield, Lanesborough, Berkshire Hills, Southern Berkshire and Central Berkshire school districts are closed. |
Duff'em If You've Got'em
 North Adams Regional Hospital went smoke-free Monday — so did all its sister sites, from Sweet Brook to Northern Berkshire Family Practice to the Women's Exchange. No ashtrays, no smoking: No butts about it. |
Wanted: Eagle Eyes
MassWildlife's annual eagle count runs Dec. 31 to Jan. 14. Anyone sighting one of the regal birds in Massachusetts is asked to participate.
Send date, time, location and town of eagle sightings, number of birds, whether juvenile or adult and observer's contact information to Mass.wildlife@state.ma.us. |
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 iBerkshires accepts submissions about local events, news and opinion pieces. There are openings for freelance work, too, for qualified candidates. E-mail tdaniels@iberkshires.com to find out more. |
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Other StuffMars Rovers Mark 5 Years
 Spirit and Opportunity have been trekking the red planet for half a decade. Spirit hit the 5-year mark on Sunday; Opportunity will on Jan. 24. |
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@theMarket: Are We There Yet?By Bill Schmick - November 01, 2008
iBerkshires Columnist
 | | Bill Schmick |
"This has to be the bottom, right?"
"Why?" I ask.
"Well, the market went up 10 percent in one day, that's a record, right?"
"So?"
"I mean the elections are Tuesday. October's over. Shouldn't the market rally?"
And so it goes. Client after client called me this week, flush with cash, sitting on the sidelines, just panting to get in at the "bottom." Three weeks ago the same people were bailing out, absolutely certain that the markets would never come back in their lifetime. A psychologist would label it schizophrenic behavior. I just call it emotional and. over the last couple of decades, I've learned that emotions have no business in the investment process.
Now one can hardly blame the investor, especially those closest to retirement, for wanting to get back some of the money they lost as fast as they can. Yet, in my opinion, that is a sure way of losing even more money. No question the markets offer great values but value does not necessarily equate to instant rewards. I suspect some investors are confusing the two.
Value in the context of fundamental analysis is usually dictated by the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 (among other indicators). In other words, how cheap are stocks based on their earnings? Right now the P/E of the market is about 9.7 times earnings compared to a ten year market average P/E of 17.8. So given their earnings, stocks are selling for almost 50 percent less than they have for anytime in the last 10 years. No wonder Warren Buffet says stocks are cheap.
Yet cheap does not mean that investors will rush in to buy stocks or that prices will react immediately. That occurs in bull markets and only when most stocks are relatively expensive. In bear markets, when the economy is in recession as it is now (see Thursday's column "The Economy Reverses"), stocks can remain cheap for an awful long time. So don't expect value to equal a quick buck.
As we close out the month the major averages were down substantially (the worst decline in 21 years) with the S&P 500 declining 17 percent. It was the worst monthly sell-off in 21 years (in October, 1987 the index declined 21.8 percent). Yet, as I predicted the markets were so oversold that a move up was expected. In this last week the major averages all managed to stage strong rallies chalking up an average 10 percent gain overall. It was also the first time all month that the markets managed to stay positive for two consecutive days.
Next Tuesday the presidential elections may spark a further rally, possibly sending the S&P 500 up to around 1050. That would be a gain of about 25 percent from its intraday low of Oct. 10. But I think that would be about it for this bear market rally. After that, I suspect we will re-test the lows and hopefully they will hold. So go out and have a Happy Halloween — you deserve it!
Bill Schmick is a licensed investment adviser representative and portfolio strategist as well as a registered financial planner with Berkshire-based Dion Money Management, which manages more than $500 million for middle-class Americans from coast to coast. Direct your inquires to Bill at 1-877-850-7942, Ext. 146, (toll-free) or e-mail him at wschmick@dionmm.com. You can also visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insight. |
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