St. Stanislaus School benefit, 9 to 4 in Kolbe Hall, Adams. Bake sale, snack bar, games, Chinese auctions, money raffle, crafts, and pierogi.
Blackinton Union Church, 1373 Massachusetts Ave., North Adams; 10 to 2. Crafts table, bake sale, Chinese auction, the Christmas table, and kid's grab bag. Lunch $4, $2 kids.
First Congregational Church, North Adams, 9-2.
Nov. 28 Becket Federated Church, Route 8, holiday bazaar from 9-3. Lunch, crafts, baked goods, holiday and other items. Information: Mary Peltier, Parish House, 413-623-5217.
Dec. 5
Holiday Fair at First Congregational Church, 25 Park Place, Lee, from 10 to 3; handcrafted items, raffles, children's shop, bake sale, cut Christmas trees and lunch from 11 to 1. Includes angel-themed goods from SERRV. Information, 413-243-1033 or www.ucc-lee.org.
Dec. 12-13
North Adams Country Club, crafts 9-4; food from That's a Wrap from 11-2. Information: Sheryl Morehouse at 413-822-3329.
Planning a bazaar this season? Submit information to info@iberkshires.com to have it listed here.
We're trying out blogs to offer shorter, easy-to-find news. Let us know what you think.
Send press releases and announcements to info@iberkshires.com. Need to contact someone at iBerkshires? Here's how.
Mammography Dispute The government's issued controversial new guidelines stating that women shouldn't get annual mammograms until age 50, rather than age 40.
iBerkshires will be meeting with local medical experts Monday. Have a question you'd like answered on this issue? Send it info@iberkshires.com with "mammogram" in the subject line.
By Bill Schmick iBerkshires Columnist 12:08PM / Saturday, November 01, 2008
Bill Schmick
"This has to be the bottom, right?"
"Why?" I ask.
"Well, the market went up 10 percent in one day, that's a record, right?"
"So?"
"I mean the elections are Tuesday. October's over. Shouldn't the market rally?"
And so it goes. Client after client called me this week, flush with cash, sitting on the sidelines, just panting to get in at the "bottom." Three weeks ago the same people were bailing out, absolutely certain that the markets would never come back in their lifetime. A psychologist would label it schizophrenic behavior. I just call it emotional and. over the last couple of decades, I've learned that emotions have no business in the investment process.
Now one can hardly blame the investor, especially those closest to retirement, for wanting to get back some of the money they lost as fast as they can. Yet, in my opinion, that is a sure way of losing even more money. No question the markets offer great values but value does not necessarily equate to instant rewards. I suspect some investors are confusing the two.
Value in the context of fundamental analysis is usually dictated by the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 (among other indicators). In other words, how cheap are stocks based on their earnings? Right now the P/E of the market is about 9.7 times earnings compared to a ten year market average P/E of 17.8. So given their earnings, stocks are selling for almost 50 percent less than they have for anytime in the last 10 years. No wonder Warren Buffet says stocks are cheap.
Yet cheap does not mean that investors will rush in to buy stocks or that prices will react immediately. That occurs in bull markets and only when most stocks are relatively expensive. In bear markets, when the economy is in recession as it is now (see Thursday's column "The Economy Reverses"), stocks can remain cheap for an awful long time. So don't expect value to equal a quick buck.
As we close out the month the major averages were down substantially (the worst decline in 21 years) with the S&P 500 declining 17 percent. It was the worst monthly sell-off in 21 years (in October, 1987 the index declined 21.8 percent). Yet, as I predicted the markets were so oversold that a move up was expected. In this last week the major averages all managed to stage strong rallies chalking up an average 10 percent gain overall. It was also the first time all month that the markets managed to stay positive for two consecutive days.
Next Tuesday the presidential elections may spark a further rally, possibly sending the S&P 500 up to around 1050. That would be a gain of about 25 percent from its intraday low of Oct. 10. But I think that would be about it for this bear market rally. After that, I suspect we will re-test the lows and hopefully they will hold. So go out and have a Happy Halloween — you deserve it!
Bill Schmick is a licensed investment adviser representative and portfolio strategist as well as a registered financial planner with Berkshire-based Dion Money Management, which manages more than $500 million for middle-class Americans from coast to coast. Direct your inquires to Bill at 1-877-850-7942, Ext. 146, (toll-free) or e-mail him at wschmick@dionmm.com. You can also visit www.afewdollarsmore.com for more of Bill's insight.
